Plenty more warm days are on tap as summer continues across the Chicago area, though relief isn’t too far away.
Lower temperatures will naturally come in the fall, though conditions might not exactly be the same as last year — when “a frosty and wet” fall season was predicted. The Farmer’s Almanac recently released their weather predictions, seeking to keep everyone from gardeners to travelers prepared for what lies ahead.
The publication predicts a warmer-than-normal autumn for much of the country, but it’s a different story in the Chicago area.
The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for cooler and drier conditions this fall in the lower Great Lakes region, including a wide swath of Illinois. The expectation is for periods of rain in the early parts of September and October, though monthly rainfall totals will likely be half an inch below normal and one inch below normal, respectively.
On the flip side, warmer conditions will prevail for a large swath of the country – the western half. Hotter than normal temperatures will emerge in not only several western regions, including the Pacific Northwest and the Pacific Southwest, but also areas to the east.
The almanac specifically predicts temperatures could be as high as 3 degrees above normal in the Atlantic Corridor, Southeast and Intermountain areas.
You might be wondering – how accurate are the predictions?
The Farmer’s Almanac claims a success rate of 80-to-85%, though many media studies have contested that figure.
Many meteorologists dispute the accuracy and the methodology employed by the publication. One such study, conducted by the University of Illinois and cited by Popular Mechanics, holds that the Old Farmer’s Almanac is only correct 52% of the time, which essentially represents the odds of a coin flip landing on either heads or tails.
More information on the 2025 Farmer’s Almanac predictions for the U.S. and Canada can be found here.
What Does the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration Say?
The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for the Chicago area differs from the Farmer’s Almanac’s, with Illinois expected to see temperatures “leaning above” average through the end of October.
A vast majority of the U.S. is in the “leaning above” category, though the Northeast and some states, including parts of Florida, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Texas and New Mexico face a higher probability of above-average temperatures.