Petrol could be set to surge again, and your groceries could be next.
Petrol attendant fills up a tank with South African flag in the background/iStock/alexis84
Just when South African motorists were starting to breathe a little easier after the fuel price cuts earlier this year… the universe said, “Not so fast.”
New data suggests drivers could soon be facing another painful spike at the pumps, with petrol and diesel prices expected to climb sharply in April
According to BusinessTech, early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows a massive under-recovery in fuel prices, which usually signals increases in the coming month.
Let’s break down what this means.
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Why fuel prices might spike again
Fuel prices in South Africa are influenced by two major factors: The global oil price and the rand/dollar exchange rate
Right now, both are working against motorists. Data from the CEF at the end of the first week of March shows:
- Petrol under-recovery is around R2.40 per litre
- Diesel under-recovery is around R4.50 per litre
In simple terms, this means fuel is currently cheaper than it should be based on international costs, and prices may need to rise to catch up.
If current trends continue through the rest of the month, South Africa could see a complete reversal of the price cuts introduced earlier in the year.
Expected fuel price increases (early projections)
Based on current mid-month estimates, motorists could see the following increases in April:
- Petrol 93: ↑ about R2.28 per litre
- Petrol 95: ↑ about R2.41 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↑ about R4.39 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↑ about R4.50 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: ↑ about R6.60 per litre
If these projections hold, diesel users (including logistics companies and farmers) could feel the biggest impact.
When diesel prices rise, transport costs often increase too, which can eventually push up the price of everyday goods.
It’s essentially a domino effect which could see South Africans struggling to make ends meet.
ALSO READ: 2015 vs 2025: South Africa’s grocery prices have gone up, up and away!
What’s causing the surge?
According to reporting by BusinessTech, the biggest driver behind the spike is geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
The conflict escalated when the United States government and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026.
This triggered retaliatory strikes and escalating military action across the region.
Since the Middle East plays a massive role in global oil supply, any conflict there tends to rattle oil markets.
As a result, oil prices jumped from about $60 per barrel earlier this year to around $85, investors pulled money out of emerging markets and the rand weakened from under R16/$ to around R16.60/$
Could prices still change?
There is still some uncertainty.
Fuel price recoveries can change throughout the month depending on movements in the oil price and changes in the rand/dollar exchange rate.
However, analysts warn that markets do not expect the Middle East conflict to end soon.
Reports suggest the White House anticipates four to five weeks of military action, with the possibility of it lasting even longer.
If the conflict continues to pressure global markets, fuel prices could remain under strain for months.
ALSO READ: Oil prices surge as Mideast war rages, stocks fall on US jobs
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