PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Water policy experts are warning Arizona residents to prepare for significant water cuts as a multi-state agreement over Colorado River usage nears expiration and seven states remain unable to reach a new deal after two years of negotiations.
Arizona’s negotiators say water cuts are coming, and some experts say they could be worse than expected.
Federal government steps in
The water from the Colorado River is shared between seven states, but the agreement that determines who gets what is expiring. Because state leaders have been unable to agree on a replacement, the federal government threatened to take over, releasing its own proposed agreements in January.
One federal option, which could realistically go into effect, would cut water to the Central Arizona Project by nearly 60%, according to Rhett Larson, an ASU water law professor and chief legal counsel for the Arizona Municipal Water Users Association.
“People’s response to the threat was, we’re going to retrench and fight,” Larson said.
Rate increases and yard restrictions expected
The Central Arizona Project launched an ad campaign warning the Valley to prepare for the worst. Larson said that regardless of whether the federal government takes over, Arizona will receive less water.
“That decrease in water is going to get passed on in some way to water ratepayers. Your water rates are going to go up,” Larson said.
Kyl Center for Water Policy director Sarah Porter said restrictions on yard watering may also go into effect. Cities are working behind the scenes to find alternative water supplies.
“Cities need to make investments in water supply that are probably going to raise our rates,” Porter said.
Worst-case scenario: Colorado River runs dry
Larson said in the worst case, even dramatic cuts may not be enough. He said lake levels are so low that the Colorado River could dry up completely, bringing major impacts to Arizona’s farming industry and economy.
“The national news media saying some cities in some parts of Arizona have had to make some cuts in water supply will have massive impacts because then every company that’s looking to invest in Arizona,” Larson said.
The deadline for states to reach an agreement is in October, but Larson said if no agreement is in place by mid-July, it will be too late. He said the most important thing Arizona can do is stay united and support candidates who prioritize water.
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