Eliot Wolf, the New England Patriots’ executive vice president of player personnel, spoke last week about the impressive work the team did in free agency to fill its most obvious holes, while acknowledging all that still needs to be done.
He mentioned the Patriots’ desire to improve in the running game and how coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye influenced free-agent decisions.
But over the course of any offseason, an NFL team typically makes a few risky moves. They’re the kind of transactions that, if things go right, they’ll end up looking great. But they’re also a bit of a gamble. So here are the big chances the Patriots are taking this season.
1. That Alijah Vera-Tucker stays healthy
No Patriots move so far this offseason has embodied this idea of a risky move that could pay off in a big way quite like the signing of Vera-Tucker, 26, whom they plan to slot in at left guard while moving Jared Wilson to center.
The risk is obvious. Vera-Tucker has suffered season-ending injuries in three of his five seasons as a pro. He has missed 42 of 85 potential NFL games due to injury. So they are putting a lot of faith in a guy who has dealt with significant injuries and missed all of last season.
Why? Because if they hit on this gamble, they’ve added one of the better interior offensive linemen in the league to a front five that needs help.
“Vera-Tucker in 2024 was one of the best guards in the NFL,” Wolf said.
2. The Eagles’ ask for A.J. Brown dips in June
As Dianna Russini reported, the Patriots had serious conversations with the Philadelphia Eagles last week about acquiring Brown, the three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver, as did the Los Angeles Rams. Ultimately, a deal never got over the finish line.
That could be largely because of Brown’s contract situation.
If the Eagles trade Brown before June 1, they’d be stuck with more than $20 million in dead cap space. If they deal Brown on June 1 or later, they’d save $7 million against the cap.
So the Patriots’ gamble here seems to be that waiting until June 1 to re-engage with the Eagles on Brown will yield a more eager trade partner.
If the Patriots can pull off a trade for Brown — on top of their free-agent moves and whatever happens in the draft — this would go down as a great offseason.
3. Morgan Moses stays healthy
Last season, Moses was an incredible addition for the Patriots. He was the veteran they needed in the locker room to lead a young offensive line. And, more importantly, his play was pretty darn impressive. All of that should be celebrated.
But it’s also worth noting that Moses turned 35 earlier this month. The play of offensive tackles can dip swiftly as they enter their late 30s. So while Moses gave the Patriots everything they hoped for last season, it’s a bit of a dice roll to expect similar play from him this fall.
And perhaps it’s not even fair to call this a gamble yet, since the Patriots could use an early-round pick on an offensive tackle who can be a backup in 2026 and take over for Moses in 2027.
4. Harold Landry bounces back
The Patriots watched as edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson signed with the Washington Commanders in free agency. And they’ve only added Dre’Mont Jones to that group.
Jones and Harold Landry don’t make for the most intimidating pair of edge rushers, even if Landry is healthy. But the concern is that Landry’s knee injury from last season lingers, and his play takes a hit.
Landry notched 8.5 sacks last season, but his pressure rate wasn’t great, ranking 51st in the NFL (12.8 percent) among players with at least 200 pass rush snaps. Jones’ pressure rate was 10.6. Both were well behind Chaisson, who was at 14.5 percent.
So the Patriots are putting a lot of eggs into Landry’s basket, hoping he plays well in his age-30 season.
In fairness, this too could change if the Patriots use their first-round pick on an edge rusher, which seems the most likely outcome. But a look at what they currently have at the position underscores the need to draft one with the 31st pick.
5. Romeo Doubs hasn’t peaked
It was easy in the days after the Patriots agreed to a deal with Doubs to note that even in the receiver’s most productive season a year ago, he didn’t come close (724 yards) to matching the production of Stefon Diggs in New England (1,013 yards).
But the Pats’ bet here isn’t about past production. It’s that Doubs at 26 years old is going to be a better wide receiver than Diggs at 32.
Doubs was part of a deep group of wide receivers with the Green Bay Packers a year ago. He wasn’t the focal point of the offense, but he impressed the Patriots’ scouts with his ability to play from a number of different spots as a receiver and attack a defense.
Now, Doubs may not be the Patriots’ No. 1 wide receiver come training camp, especially if Brown is added. But their dice roll is that Doubs will be able to make up for a lot of what they lost when they released Diggs.