Drought conditions are worsening across North Carolina, with all 100 counties now in some level of drought and large parts of the state facing severe to extreme conditions.
Rainfall over the past six months is running nearly 10 inches below normal in many areas, according to state and federal data, leaving streams, rivers and reservoirs at unusually low levels heading into spring.
State officials say the lack of winter rainfall has prevented the usual seasonal recharge of water supplies.
“Winter is usually the time when North Carolina’s water supplies get replenished due to good rains and low-water demand, but those good rains did not happen this winter,” said Klaus Albertin, chair of the North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council.
“The rain we’ve had so far has not been enough to make up for the precipitation deficit,” Albertin said.
While impacts have been limited so far due to lower winter demand, officials warn conditions could worsen as temperatures rise and water use increases.
“We could see poor growth for farmers at the start of the growing season, or delays in planting, low reservoir levels and closed boat launches,” Albertin said.
Scientists say the lack of rain is only part of the problem. Higher temperatures are accelerating how quickly soil and vegetation lose moisture, intensifying drought conditions even without major changes in rainfall totals.
“During a drought, if the temperature is hotter and higher on average, and the atmosphere is thirstier, things can dry out faster,” said Walt Robinson, a professor of atmospheric sciences at NC State University.
That effect is already showing up in key water sources across the state.
“I did notice flying over Falls Lake. The lake was really low,” Robinson said.
If dry conditions persist into the warmer months, when evaporation increases and demand rises, water systems could face additional strain.
“If this drought continues, I would expect we would see more water restrictions,” Robinson said.
At the same time, dry conditions are increasing wildfire risk across North Carolina. The N.C. Forest Service issued a statewide burn ban in late March as forests and vegetation continue to dry out.
The risk is especially high in western North Carolina, where Hurricane Helene left behind large amounts of downed trees and debris that can fuel fires.
“We call these compound effects. You get the heavy rains, then the landslides and trees falling down, and then you get a bad fire season because there’s all that wood on the ground,” Robinson said.
Researchers say those overlapping conditions can make fires more likely to start and spread more quickly.
Longer-term climate trends are also shaping how the state experiences both wet and dry extremes, creating added pressure on water systems that must prepare for both flooding and drought.
For areas already in extreme drought, state officials say water systems should begin implementing conservation measures and closely tracking usage.
“The public should follow any local water supply restrictions,” Albertin said. “Municipal websites are usually the best place to look for information on restrictions that are in place.”
With little significant rainfall in the forecast, experts say recovery will likely depend on sustained, soaking rain over time rather than isolated storms.