New Analysis: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary

The analysis shows that while younger voters may register in large numbers, they are far less likely to participate in lower-salience elections like congressional primaries — particularly in a district like NY-12, where turnout has historically been driven by older voters with a consistent voting history.

“In NY-12 congressional primaries, voters 50 and older turn out at nearly three times the rate of voters under 50 and seven out of every ten voters who show up are 50+,” said Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. The 2025 mayoral primary didn’t change that, it just was an election with completely different dynamics. June 23 will be decided by the 50+ voters, who always decide these races. Any candidate who doesn’t build a real 50+ strategy is running a campaign that doesn’t match the electorate they’re trying to win.”

The report also highlights that the district’s older electorate is both large and highly engaged. Nearly 94,000 Democratic voters in NY-12 are age 65 and older, representing one of the most reliable voting blocs in the race.

AARP New York emphasized that while voters 50+ are diverse in their views, they share common priorities, including protecting Social Security and Medicare, addressing the rising cost of living and supporting family caregivers.

With early voting expected to account for a significant share of ballots cast, the report notes that older voters have also embraced early voting — further reinforcing their influence over the outcome.

The full analysis, The Power of the 50+ Voter in New York’s 12th Congressional District, can be found here: https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/states/ny/voter-50.pdf