DETROIT — As Tarik Skubal sat in an interview room Monday and discussed his own upcoming arm surgery, there were questions not even he could answer.
Some of them start with the basics. Skubal has loose bodies in his throwing arm. It’s a fairly common injury and considered a minimally invasive procedure. But what exactly does this funny-sounding injury entail?
“I’m not sure I’m the best person (to explain)” Skubal said. “I’m a player.”
Some of the queries venture so much deeper. Skubal, for the record, said he is not overly worried. He hopes to return at some point later this season, “and get back to pitching in the big leagues for the Tigers.”
But for a pitcher of Skubal’s stature — a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner in the middle of a contract year — there are other questions that flow through the minds of so many watching along.
Some of the questions are answerable. Others will take time to fully unpack.
What exactly are loose bodies?
In the words of Dr. Robert Grumet, an orthopedic sports medicine surgeon with the Hoag Orthopedic Institute, loose bodies are common in high-level pitchers. Hunter Greene of the Reds, Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves and Edwin Díaz of the Dodgers are among pitchers who have already had similar surgeries this season.
“A lot of pitchers throwing many innings over many years of their life develop a lot of wear and tear in their elbow,” Grumet said. “Over time, they typically get little pieces of cartilage that will break off in the elbow just from repetitive use. Those little pieces will calcify from time to time, moving around inside the elbow. A lot of pitchers can get by OK with them, especially if they’re small. As more accumulate or they start to get a little bit bigger, they’ll start to get caught, kind of like a stick in your bike tire. It will stop that elbow from the ability to move.”
What does the surgery entail?
Skubal is set to have an arthroscopic procedure Wednesday to clean out his elbow. It’s unclear where Skubal is having the surgery or which physician he will work with.
The good news is the surgery is considered simple as arm as arm procedures go. Grumet said the arthroscopy consists of, “Little keyhole incisions, about a centimenter. Several of them are done on the elbow. They put a little camera on the elbow. They put some fluid inside to insufflate the joint. And through that they can see these loose pieces and be able to grab them and pull them out or use a little shaving device to suck them out.”
How long does it take to recover?
The Tigers have declined to share the expected recovery timeline for Skubal. The industry consensus suggests 2-3 months should be typical. But the exact timeline can vary depending on the patient and the extent of the loose bodies in the arm.
“I think 2-3 months is probably reasonable,” Grumet said. “It could be on the longer end, pushing 3 or even 4 (months) depending how much velocity that particular athlete is trying to get back. I think velocity plays a role. Some of these guys that throw in the high 90s, it might take a little bit longer to get back.”
Said Shahryar Ahmadi, an orthopedic surgeon at MemorialCare Long Beach Medical Center: “The spectrum of this one can be all the way from a few weeks to six months. If it involves a big part of the joint and has more extensive arthritis and loose bodies, it can be three to six months. If it’s just a couple of tiny loose bodies, it can be six weeks to a maximum of three months.”
Could there be complications?
Chances are Skubal’s procedure will go smoothly. But any time you open up a pitcher’s arm, greater concerns can arise.
“The main thing is you have to know what’s causing all of this,” Ahmadi said. “For example, a baseball player may have some (ligament) instability that may be causing this. If it’s just some simple arthritis not due to other things, basically just cleaning up is enough. If it’s associated with other stuff like instability, it could be a different story.”
The fact Skubal previously had Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a flexor tendon surgery in 2022 raises natural concerns. Although it’s impossible to know exactly what Skubal is dealing with from afar, Grumet said initial MRIs likely would have revealed any more substantive damage.
“These can happen in isolation. He would have had an MRI in this case that would have shown the integrity of his UCL and his previous Tommy John surgery,” Grumet said. “It’s unlikely there are any concerns from that perspective. … Generally speaking, if someone has an unstable UCL, in time they can develop more of these loose bodies. But that doesn’t sound like the case here.”
What does this mean for Skubal going forward?
On MLB Network, former major-league pitcher Dan Plesac put it simply: “If you’re going to have surgery on your elbow or shoulder, this is the one you would sign up to have.”
Cleaning up loose bodies generally has a favorable outcome in terms of returning to a previous level of play. So long as there are no larger structural issues in Skubal’s arm, it’s fair to assume he can return to his dominant self once he is cleared to pitch again. Grumet compared it to a meniscus surgery in an athlete’s knee, in that there are generally few, if any, long-term concerns.
“This is one of the more predictable surgeries to get back to play,” he said.
Is there any chance Skubal could be traded?
The medical portion of Skubal’s return is scientific. The implications of the injury and what it means are left more to speculation.
Let’s say Skubal returns to the major leagues exactly three months from the date of his surgery. That would be Aug. 6, three days after this summer’s trade deadline.
Skubal is in the final year of team control, something that fueled trade speculation all winter. The Tigers ultimately kept Skubal, signed Framber Valdez and promoted Kevin McGonigle to the major leagues, making a clear push to win this year.
The Tigers entered Tuesday at .500, navigating an up-and-down start and also weathering the consequences of having 14 players on the injured list.
Losing Skubal represents a serious hit to the Tigers’ competitive chances. Detroit is 46-23 in Skubal starts since the beginning of the 2024 season. Entering Tuesday, the Tigers were 145-146 in all other games.
Because the Tigers play in what is considered a weak AL Central division, the chances of falling completely out of contention remain slim. But let’s say things were to really go south. Could the Tigers still trade Skubal?
This past December at MLB’s Winter Meetings, some evaluators speculated Skubal’s trade value could be higher at the deadline than it was in the winter. If teams are desperate to push for a World Series, they might be willing to part with a larger haul in exchange for the best pitcher in baseball.
Now, though, any team bidding for Skubal’s services does so with a greater element of uncertainty. His exact recovery timeline could play a role. Would a team be getting Skubal for 10 starts? Or could it be more like five? Such questions might give opposing teams pause and cause them to limit their trade offers.
If the Tigers aren’t satisfied with their offers, they could easily hold on to Skubal, give him the qualifying offer at year’s end and recoup a draft pick in the event Skubal signs elsewhere.
So for now, even with his team in a more vulnerable position, the chances of Skubal getting traded seem slimmer than they already were.
What does this mean for Skubal’s impending free agency?
This is the big question, and perhaps the one nobody can answer with any degree of certainty.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers holds the record for largest starting pitcher contract at $325 million. Only days ago, the industry at large expected Skubal to eclipse that figure in free agency.
Will the injury prevent Skubal from getting a record deal? We probably need to see how his recovery goes first.
“I hope he comes back and he’s the same guy he was before,” former MLB pitcher Dontrelle Willis said on FS1. “We know his work ethic. We know his belief. But we hope to see that velocity, because if I see some 90 mph fastballs, ‘Oh no,’ and everybody is going to pause, not only in the Tigers organization, but around the league, as well.”
If Skubal returns in a reasonable length of time and pitches like his usual self, there’s a chance his market remains incredibly strong. The fact Skubal has had three arm procedures could give teams hesitation about offering a 10-year deal to a pitcher who will be entering his age-30 season. You could also argue any team offering such a contract to a modern pitcher is signing up for risk one way or another.
Such lingering questions could perhaps increase the likelihood of Skubal taking a one-year pillow deal or a contract with opt-outs, hoping to prove a full year or health and typical dominance before re-entering the market and seeking that record contract. It is a strategy agent Scott Boras has used with success for clients such as Alex Bregman and others in the past. But more uncertainty lurks with the expiration of MLB’s collective bargaining agreement this coming December. The chance of missing games is the 2027 season looms large. Although Boras and Skubal (a member of MLBPA’s executive subcommittee) will oppose a salary cap, there remains a chance MLB’s labor landscape could be altered on the other end of an expected lockout.
Another thing to consider: There is no 1:1 comparison for Skubal’s situation. Shane Bieber had his free-agent year interrupted with a torn UCL in his second start of the 2024 season. He returned to the Guardians on a one-year deal, but Bieber’s injury was more severe, and he had already declined somewhat from his 2020 Cy Young peak.
Carlos Correa, a position player and Boras client, entered free agency after posting a career-best 7.3 bWAR in 2021. On the other side of a lockout that offseason, Correa settled for a short-term, three-year, $105.3 million deal with the Twins, loaded with opt-outs. After posting another strong season and opting out, Correa initially agreed to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the Giants the next winter. That deal fell through after concerns over Correa’s medicals, namely a past injury to his right ankle. A subsequent 12-year, $315 million contract with the Mets fell through for similar reasons. Correa ended up back with the Twins on a 6-year, $200 million contract.
One apt comparison could be Jacob deGrom, a pitcher who dominated when healthy but entered free agency with a lengthy injury history.
In the two seasons before deGrom’s free agency, he pitched only 156 1/3 innings. In spring of his walk year, he suffered a stress reaction in his right scapula that pushed his season debut to Aug. 2. deGrom carded a 3.08 ERA in only 11 starts that season. He still received a five-year, $185 million contract from the Rangers that winter.
Skubal is younger and overall healthier than deGrom. If there is reason to believe his market could still be robust provided he returns to pitch like his usual self, it could be what Rangers president of baseball operations said at the time his club signed deGrom.
“Certainly we acknowledge that there’s been, the last couple years, some injuries, but we also feel comfortable with the way Jacob finished the season,” Young said. “All things considered, these are big decisions. We acknowledge the risks, but we also acknowledge that in order to get great players, there is a risk and a cost associated with that.”