Last night saw the hockey world settle in to watch the NHL draft lottery, an annual event in which a collection of ping-pong balls reward whichever franchise and its fans are found to be the most noble and pure of heart.
So now we know the NHL’s order for this June’s draft, pending any trades. And it really feels like we’re only saying that last part to be polite. It’s exceedingly rare to see a team trade a pick in the first half of the first round, at least once the lottery has come and gone and the pick order is locked in. And that’s especially true if you ignore trades where teams move up or down a few spots, like the Flyers moving up to 12th last year in a minor draft-floor deal with the Penguins. As far as anything bigger, we might see a move every year or two, like last year’s Noah Dobson trade, or the Senators getting Alex DeBrincat in 2022. But it’s rare.
And that’s a shame, because every lottery team should be open to trading their pick. Yes, all of them.
Being “open to” trading a pick isn’t the same as actually doing it, of course. But it’s hard to shake the feeling that most teams walk out of the lottery with their draft pick and decide it’s completely untouchable. Don’t even ask. Making a big move with an early-ish first is off the table.
But it shouldn’t be. So today, in what will no doubt turn out to be an act of utter futility, let’s try to convince all 15 lottery teams they should trade their first-round pick.
(Yes, 15 teams. You’re off the hook, Detroit. Always nice to see someone hand in the assignment early for extra credit.)
We’ll start with the 16th pick and work our way to the first choice, which is to say that we’ll start on high difficulty and work our way up to virtually impossible. Let’s do this.
16. Washington Capitals
Obviously not, because: They need to start preparing for the end of the Alexander Ovechkin era, which is either very close or has already arrived. They’ve got a decent pipeline and Ryan Leonard, but they are going to need more to get back into contention someday.
OK, but… : If Ovechkin isn’t done, don’t you owe it to him to do everything you can to let him take a last swing at winning something? The situation isn’t quite as dire as it would be if he didn’t have that one ring from 2018, but true legends deserve every run they can get.
Could trading a mid-round pick for immediate help push the Caps back into contender status? Unlikely, but not impossible — just look at what the Penguins pulled off this year with Sidney Crosby. At the very least, that kind of return to the postseason has to be the bar if Ovechkin comes back, right?
14. Columbus Blue Jackets
Obviously not, because: They’re slowly but surely building something in Columbus, but nobody thinks they’re one or two veterans away from a Cup. So stay patient and keep stocking the cupboard.
OK, but… : You always hear about the two-year window that Edmonton has with Connor McDavid or Toronto with Auston Matthews, but should we be having a version of that conversation about Zach Werenski? The presumptive Norris winner has two years left on his deal, and he’s in his prime as probably the best player the franchise has ever had. Staying patient is fine, but when you’ve won just a single seven-game series in your history, a little bit of urgency feels appropriate.
13. New York Islanders
Obviously not, because: You’re building around Matthew Schaefer, and the playbook for this sort of thing is clear: If you’re lucky enough to land a true franchise player, you surround him with other young talent that can all hit their peak at the same time.
OK, but… : That’s pretty convincing, and the Islanders are one of several teams where this feels like an especially tough case to make.
But what if Schaefer isn’t the typical elite prospect, but something even better? He just finished one of the greatest rookie seasons any blueliner has ever had, after all. What could year two be like? Or year three? It’s at least possible the Islanders didn’t just stumble into a great prospect, but found a true unicorn.
And if that’s the case, then trying to get some winning done right now — before he potentially resets the blue line market on his second contract — could be the right play. A No. 13 pick probably doesn’t help you much at all during that two-year window, but you could flip it for something that could.
The short version: If Mathieu Darche doesn’t trade this pick it’s because he doesn’t believe in Matthew Schaefer. Cool, who’s next.
12. New Jersey Devils
Obviously not, because: They have a new GM, and new GMs use their draft picks, they don’t trade them away.
OK, but… : The Devils are one of a handful of lottery teams that could at least convince itself a Cup is in play. Granted, they’d need to stay healthy for a change, but that’s going to be the case for any team. The Devils have spent the last three years being hyped as a quasi-contender and have won just a single playoff game in that time. With Nico Hischier entering the last year of his deal, and not sounding especially enthused about the direction of the franchise, we may be reaching shoot or get off the point territory in New Jersey.
11 and 15. St. Louis Blues
Obviously not, because: They have a new GM, and new GMs use their draft picks, they don’t trade them away. Wait, we’re going to be using that one a lot, aren’t we…
OK, but… : Alex Steen isn’t exactly new, having been with the organization for a while, and you’d assume he’s been working closely with Doug Armstrong on the team’s recent strategy. That strategy seems to be centered on telling everyone you want to trade all your best players and then not doing that, so anything could be in play here.
But while the Blues seem to be closer to a rebuild than to contention, they’re an easier case to make for our purposes than just about anyone else, for a simple reason: They have two picks in the top 15. They could trade one and use the other. Or they could try an NFL-style move and package both picks to try to move up closer to the top of the draft. Or they could do what the Habs did last year in similar circumstances, and flip both picks for a star player. More picks means more options, and some of those options could absolutely involve the trade market.
10. Nashville Predators
Obviously not, because: They’re about to have a new GM, and new GMs… you know what, you get it.
OK, but… : The Predators are a classic team that’s a bit too old and a bit too flawed, and we know what direction that usually goes. But it’s also possible whoever takes over for Barry Trotz might look at a roster built around aging stars like Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos, plus a 31-year-old goalie, and decide it’s time to take a swing. It wouldn’t necessarily be the right choice, but it’s plausible.
9. Florida Panthers
Obviously not, because: Years of contending have depleted the farm system, making this a rare and unexpected opportunity to do some restocking.
OK, but… : Flags fly forever. The Panthers did the perpetual rebuild thing for the better part of two decades, so they can tell you all about how unpredictable top-10 picks can be. They have a championship core right now, and the goal should be getting the group into as many deep playoff runs as possible before the bill comes due.
That’s why the Panthers were an easy choice for most likely team to trade their pick in yesterday’s lottery power rankings. If anything, the only argument against the Panthers trading this pick now is that it would make more sense to use it on a prospect and then trade him down the road when any holes on the current roster have fully revealed themselves.
8. Winnipeg Jets
Obviously not, because: We know the drill in Winnipeg, where the best and maybe only way to land a star is to draft and develop one. That means keeping and hitting on high picks, not shopping them for short-term help.
OK, but… : That makes all the sense in the world, right up until the best player that the draft-and-develop approach has ever yielded starts sounding like a guy who wants to win now. Connor Hellebuyck’s comments were more nuanced than some made them out to be, but they still loom large. When he says “to just put that same product on the ice, I don’t think it worked for a reason,” that might be enough to make Kevin Cheveldayoff think twice about the value of drafting a prospect who’s unlikely to make an impact for a few more years.
As Hellebuyck said: “Can you get the pieces that you need?” Not without trading something of value, no, probably not.
7. Seattle Kraken
Obviously not, because: Matty Beniers is a good player, but the fact he’s head-and-shoulders above everyone else the Kraken have ever drafted tells you how badly this team needs to hit a home run on a draft pick. Now’s their chance.
OK, but… : Patience is nice and all but (gestures at enormous shadow cast by an incoming NBA team) maybe now’s not the time.
6. Calgary Flames
Obviously not, because: The Flames have spent the last few years trading away virtually every good veteran player on the team, collecting picks and prospects along the way. They can call it a rebuild or a retool or whatever you want, but we all know what’s happening in Calgary. And it should be, because it’s exactly what this franchise needs.
OK, but… : This one’s pretty straightforward. They’ve got a new arena on the way, and ownership would probably prefer to have at least a winning-adjacent team to help pack the building. It’s hard to move the needle all that much with a No. 6 pick, at least right away. (Even Matthew Tkachuk, one of the best sixth picks ever, took until his third year to crack 50 points.)
Would trading the sixth pick for immediate help be much better? Not really. But what about using the pick as a starting point to try to move up to one of the top three spots? That feels a little more intriguing, right? And the Flames would have plenty of ammo to help make it happen.
5. New York Rangers
Obviously not, because: They’re “retooling,” as you may have noted from their most recent letter to fans, or from them trading Artemi Panarin for pennies on the dollar. Rebuild strategy can be tricky, but a good rule of thumb is that they typically don’t involve trading away top-five picks.
OK, but… : Wait, are we sure the Ranger are rebuilding? I mean, they were, or at least they were sure planning to back in January when they sent out that letter. But that was before the Panarin trade that they had no real choice on but that didn’t yield much. And it was also before a deadline that saw them fail to move Vincent Trocheck despite his value being at a post-Olympics high. Mix in veterans who would be hard (and maybe impossible) to move like Mika Zibanejad and J.T. Miller, not to mention the world’s most expensive goalie, and over $16 million worth of a veteran top defensive pair, and the Rangers might be starting to realize what they want and what they can actually do are two different things.
If that’s the case, they can keep trying anyways. They could also decide to steer into the skid.
4. Chicago Blackhawks
Obviously not, because: You’re aware of the Kyle Davidson experience, yes? His bosses are, and they seem to be enjoying it.
OK, but… : There’s no such thing as too many prospects. But there is such a thing as not enough veteran talent, and at some point you wonder if Davidson and the Hawks aren’t taking this whole “we’ll worry about actually winning someday down the line” thing a bit too far. Connor Bedard is about to start his fourth year in the league, and it would be nice for him to play a meaningful game in the second half of a season at some point. If he did that with a pair of NHL-caliber wingers, even better.
Also, Laz agrees with me, and he’s never wrong about anything.
3. Vancouver Canucks
Obviously not, because: This stupid league is rigged so who even cares.
OK, but… : You’re going to see a lot of takes over the next few days about how the Canucks have never had the first overall pick, but that’s not true. They’ve never used one, but they did have one, back in 1999, for a few minutes. They also had the fourth pick that year. And then eventually, the second and third, which they used to change the course of franchise history by picking the Sedin twins.
The Canucks owned all of those top picks that year because their GM, Brian Burke, didn’t sit around and mope about bad luck. He knew who he wanted, and so he got to work and made it happen. He made calls, he plotted out scenarios, he put a series of deals together, and he threatened to fight other GMs in a barn unless they agreed. That last one might not be accurate, but I’m betting it probably was. The point is, he didn’t take no for an answer. And he didn’t let some ping-pong balls get in the way.
You wanted a top-two pick? Cool, go get one. Or get something even better. You’ve got more than enough ammo to make it happen, you just need a little bit of that Burkie mojo to see it through. Step one: Hire a GM who knows how to get things done instead of just talk a good game about what might have been.
2. San Jose Sharks
Obviously not, because: They’ve been rebuilding for years, and while this season represented a big (and mostly unexpectedly early) step forward, the work isn’t done yet. The lottery gods have rewarded you again, and you say thank you very much, draft another stud, and start shopping for discounts on bulk ring purchases in a few years.
Stay the course, in other words, and it will pay off. Soon, just not quite yet.
OK, but… : Much like the Islanders, the Sharks may have a unicorn of their own in Macklin Celebrini. With only one more year left on his rookie deal, there probably isn’t time to take a real swing at a Stanley Cup before his cap hit soars. But that doesn’t mean you don’t want to keep last year’s momentum, and at this point some immediate help might do more to get you there than yet another prospect to throw on the pile. And as an added bonus, the Pacific is wide open right now, as the cross-state Ducks have shown. It’s there for the taking. So go take it.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs
Obviously not, because: A team with no prospects and little hope just spent 24 hours getting dunked on by the entire hockey world for their new front office, then immediately won a long-shot draft lottery that could change everything. There is zero chance they’d trade this pick. Come on.
OK, but… : John Chayka’s an analytics guy, right? I feel like Keith Pelley may have mentioned that once or twice. Well, one thing analytics guys love to do is trade down in drafts to accumulate extra pick value. And you’d think that would be especially true for a team lacking in picks and prospects.
No? Not convincing? OK, let’s try this angle: We’re told the franchise’s top priority is keeping Auston Matthews, and while adding an elite young winger might help convince him to stick around, it’s possible he’s not all that interested in waiting. If that’s the case, and the Leafs want to add an immediate impact player, they just went from having exactly zero assets they could trade for that guy to having one. Which might be all they’d need.
Still no? OK, what if you put yourself in Chayka’s shoes and realized the reaction to your hiring had made it clear you’re already on the clock. None of the prospects in this year’s draft are expected to be immediate impact players. You can make the obvious move and then wait for it to pay off, hoping against hope that your already perilously short honeymoon period hasn’t already run out of time before then. Or you can show everybody how smart you are by making a big, creative move that nobody sees coming, the way a true visionary would.
Still not on board? Yeah, me neither.
Fine, screw it: Matthews and the first overall pick for Connor McDavid, who says no?