The Houston Astros (56-41) and the Seattle Mariners (52-45) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 4-4

The Astros stumbled out of the break with a 6-1 loss to the Mariners Friday night. Seattle (-140) easily cashed as a moderate favorite behind RHP Luis Castillo as the total (7) pushed at most shops.

Castillo tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings, limiting Houston to 3 hits and 2 walks, as the bullpen closed the door. DH Mitch Garver went 2-for-4 with a solo home run, and OF Randy Arozarena added a homer of his own. Astros 3B Isaac Paredes provided the team’s lone extra-base hit, an RBI double.

The Astros have dropped 6 of the past 7 games, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 4 of the previous 5 outings. The Over is 4-2-1 in the past 7 games, however, as the pitching staff has allowed 4 or more runs in 7 in a row. The Over is also 7-3-1 in the past 11 contests.

The Mariners have won 4 straight and scored at least 5 runs in 6 consecutive games. The Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 outings, a stretch in which Seattle’s pitching staff has surrendered 40 runs — an average of 5.7 per game.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP Logan Evans

McCullers (2-4, 6.48 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 41 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 7-3 home defeat vs. Texas Rangers July 11
  • 2025 road stats: 2-0, 0.46 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 13 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 17 K in 4 starts
  • 2025 vs. Mariners: 1 home start (May 22), no-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 8 K in 9-2 victory
  • Career vs. Mariners (regular season): 10-3, 2.85 ERA (107 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 10 HR in 19 starts

Evans (3-3, 3.75 ERA) makes his 10th start. The rookie has a 1.35 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 50 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 2 K in 9-6 setback at New York Yankees July 9
  • 2025 home stats: 2-0, 2.28 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 14 H, 3 HR, 7 BB, 13 K in 4 starts
  • Has never faced Astros

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Astros at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mariners -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-210) | Mariners -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Astros at Mariners picks and predictionsPrediction

Mariners 3, Astros 2

The MARINERS (-130) are worth playing again Saturday night, although it might not be as easy as people think.

McCullers’ overall numbers look rough, but the splits tell a different story. He’s 0-4 with an 11.86 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over 22 innings in 6 home starts, compared to a dominant 2-0 record with a 0.46 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings across 4 road outings. Those may be among the most dramatic home-road splits in recent MLB history.

Evans has never faced the Mariners, but he has been hot at home. This could be a surprisingly well-pitched game.

Astros +1.5 (-210) will set you back more than 2 times if you’d like a little bit of insurance. That’s too much, although it is perfectly fine to toss into a multi-leg parlay.

PASS.

UNDER 8 (-110) is worth a look, as McCullers has been money on the road and Evans has been strong at home.

You’ll be going against the trends for Seattle, as the Over is 6-0-1 in the past 7 games since July 8. However, the Under is 5-0-1 in the past 6 home outings for the Mariners, while the Under is 3-3-1 in the past 7 road contests for the Astros.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @danieledobish on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.