SAN ANTONIO – Mother’s Day will be noticeably warmer to hot but may have a noisy finish with clusters or a line of storms.
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Today’s rain chance will hold at an isolated 20% chance of a hit or miss pop-up shower or thunderstorm with partly sunny skies. This is after the scattered early morning activity we saw as an outflow boundary moved in sparking some showers and thunderstorms.
Much of Mother’s Day Sunday is rain-free for those that have plans with mom. Morning starts cloudy then turns mostly sunny and is hot around 90 degrees.
We’ll be carefully monitoring trends in the evening as storms will likely be developing up north and moving south. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a level 1 – 2 of 5 severe storm outlook for strong winds and hail. North of us, a level 3 of 5 outlook is in place.
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SPC severe storm outlook Sunday – early Monday
These storms will developing ahead of an incoming cold front and moving into our region with heat and humidity built up. The combination of instability and shear will be sufficient to support the risk of strong storms.
Here are some future radar images from our IBM GRAF model showing clusters moving in or evolving into a line.
Future radar 8:30pm Sunday
Here’s the RRFS hi-res model for comparison. It too shows a line or clusters of storms moving south into our area later in the evening tomorrow into Sunday night.
RRFS model with storms for comparison
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These storms will be moving fairly quickly which will limit the amount of rainfall we see. That said, if your area does see heavier downpours from passing storms, an easy 1″ to 2″ of rainfall is possible. Other areas that miss the heavier downpours would see less rain.
Forecast rainfall from GRAF model