A sharp decline in mountain snowpack is raising concerns about water availability across Washington state heading into the summer and wildfire season, according to a new federal report released May 1.
The Washington Water Supply Outlook Report shows statewide snow water equivalent, a key measure of water stored in snowpack, at just 42% of normal, a significant drop from the previous month and well below average across all regions.
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The report was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service as part of its regular snow survey and water supply forecasting program.
Despite near- to above-normal precipitation since the start of the water year in October, officials say a “snow drought” has taken hold, limiting the amount of water expected to flow into rivers and reservoirs during the critical spring and early summer melt season.
“The lack of snow in the mountains is significantly influencing water supply forecasts,” the report states, noting that snowmelt typically provides much of the state’s water during peak demand months.
Conditions vary by region, but all major basins are experiencing below-normal snowpack. The Upper Yakima Basin is the most severely impacted, with snowpack at just 16% of normal, while the Olympic and Lower Snake–Walla Walla basins are also among the lowest at about 29%.
The report also highlights record or near-record low snowpack at multiple monitoring sites across the state, underscoring the severity of conditions.
Water supply forecasts reflect the diminished snowpack. Most river basins are expected to see below-normal or well-below-normal streamflows through late summer, with some of the lowest projections in central and eastern Washington.
At the same time, reservoir storage levels remain generally near or above normal, largely due to earlier runoff and water management practices. However, officials caution that without sustained precipitation, those reserves could decline as summer demand increases.
April weather conditions contributed to the worsening outlook. The state recorded only 74% of normal precipitation for the month, combined with warmer temperatures that accelerated snowmelt.
Drought conditions are also expanding. About 40% of Washington is classified as experiencing moderate drought, while an additional 27% is considered abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Soil moisture levels further complicate the outlook. Much of the state has drier-than-normal soils, which can absorb more snowmelt and reduce the amount of water that reaches streams and rivers.
Looking ahead, forecasters expect above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in May, a combination that could further strain water supplies.
Water managers and agricultural users rely on these forecasts to plan for irrigation, fisheries, and municipal needs during the summer months. Officials say conservative planning may be necessary this year, given the uncertainty and below-average projections.