AP Photo/Karen Warren & Win McNamee/Pool Photo via AP
U.S. Reps. Christian Menefee, left, and Al Green are competing in the Democratic primary in the 18th Congressional District.
U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee is leading U.S. Rep. Al Green in the Democratic primary runoff for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, according to a new poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.
The two Houston-area members of Congress are competing in a May 26 primary runoff election. And the survey released Tuesday shows Menefee leading Green by 50% to 43%, with 7% of respondents still undecided.
“They both are doing very well among Black voters, pretty much tied, but the difference maker is Menefee is overwhelmingly winning the white vote and the Latino vote,” said Mark Jones of Rice University’s Baker Institute, a coauthor of the survey. “Menefee finished first back in March by 2%. He’s retaining a significantly larger share of his March vote than is Green, and twice as many voters of third-place candidate Amanda Edwards in March are supporting Menefee rather than Green.”
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Texas’ 18th Congressional District is a historically Black Democratic stronghold that state lawmakers redrew last year to stretch from portions of Fort Bend and Brazoria counties through downtown Houston and into the city’s northern suburbs. Texas’ 9th Congressional District had also been a majority Black Democratic district, represented by Green for the last two decades, before state lawmakers cracked it and redrew it as a Republican opportunity district centered on eastern Harris and Liberty counties.
The poll shows Menefee leading Green in Harris County, where Menefee previously served as county attorney, while Green leads Menefee in Fort Bend County, which was long part of Green’s old TX-9.
“In terms of geography, Menefee is well ahead of Green in Harris County, while Green is well ahead of Menefee in Fort Bend County,” Jones said. “However, about three out of every four voters in this election will come from Harris County and only one in four from Fort Bend County.”
Mealer leads Cain in TX-9
The poll also shows Alex Mealer, the unsuccessful 2022 GOP candidate for Harris County judge, leading state Rep. Briscoe Cain by 50% to 41% in the Republican runoff in TX-9. Nine percent of the likely primary voters remain undecided.
“That’s due in part to her ability to retain a larger share of her vote than Cain has retained and to, on average, win a little more of the other candidate supporters,” Jones said.
Andrew Schneider/HPM
Alex Mealer (left) and Briscoe Cain (Right) are the two leading Republican candidates for Texas’ 9th Congressional District.
The poll shows Mealer and Cain splitting the votes of former U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, the third-place finisher in March, while the votes of fourth-place finisher Dan Mims are breaking more for Mealer.
Early voting for the primary runoffs is scheduled for May 18-22. Election Day is May 26.
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