Good morning from Miami,
It was the game the Padres needed.
It was the game they need more often.
The first few innings of yesterday’s 8-1 victory over the Nationals are all that can be appropriately judged regarding the offense, as the result was a done deal by then and the game was played in conditions that resembled a sauna inside a steam room inside a brick oven.
And in those three innings, the Padres were excellent.
“The at-bats were probably the best two or three innings of at-bats we’ve had all year,” Jake Cronenworth said.
The Padres sent 18 runners to the plate and made Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore throw 75 pitches before there were two outs in the third inning.
They scored five runs in the first, one in the second and two in the third.
You can read in my game story (here) how all that went down and the significance of the Padres bouncing back after Saturday’s disappointing loss, in which they did not execute offensively in myriad ways they were able to yesterday.
The Padres’ five-run first inning began with Fernando Tatis Jr. walking. Luis Arraez followed with a single, and Manny Machado worked a seven-pitch walk with ball four coming on a fastball just below the zone.
Given the number of times the Padres have failed to capitalize after setting themselves up similarly, including on Saturday, this seemed in the moment not only a crucial point in the game but a perilous one.
Then Xander Bogaerts continued the smart hitting and elite execution against the struggling Gore.
Bogaerts went up hunting fastball.
“I kind of thought he was going to throw a fastball,” he said. “He had just walked Manny. So I feel like he wanted to get … into the zone.”
The 95 mph fastball Bogaerts got on the first pitch was belt high on the inner edge, and he sent it 390 feet and over the wall in left field for the Padres’ second grand slam of the series and second grand slam of the season.
There have just been too many at-bats where the best hitters in the Padres’ lineup missed such a pitch, mishit such a pitch or took such a pitch.
They have been more judiciously aggressive the past two weeks. And yesterday was a different level of that kind of focus and execution.
The Padres chased just seven of the 34 pitches (20.5%) Gore threw outside the strike zone. One of those swings resulted in Gavin Sheets’ RBI, single, one in Jose Iglesias’ double and one in Elias Díaz’s two-run homer.
One significant thing from yesterday was what the Padres did after Bogaerts’ slam.
They added on.
That has been a tough task for them.
The Padres have 28 blown-lead losses this season, third most in the majors. Of those, seven came when they went ahead in one of the first two innings and then did not score for at least another four innings, during which time they fell behind for good.
“We add on, watch out, this team is going to be very, very dangerous,” manager Mike Shildt said. “Even more dangerous than it already is.”
The reality is dangerous is about all the Padres have been much of the season. A lineup with the accomplished players they have at the top absolutely must be considered dangerous. But opposing pitchers have been able to capably navigate that danger quite a bit.
We have seen glimmers of this team the Padres believe they can be.
If we are going to buy into the idea they might be heating up for good, there are some things to hang onto.
- They have scored four or more runs in five of their past seven games. They had done so in just five of their previous 14.
- Their .335 on-base percentage is sixth in MLB over their past 13 games. Their .296 OBP over the 44 games before that ranked 27th in the majors.
- Their .398 slugging percentage ranks 20th in the major leagues over those 13 games. They slugged .348 (29th) over the previous 44 games.
“The consistency of the at-bats, the consistency of quality swing decisions,” Shildt said. “I do feel like we’re in a really good spot and we’re trending in a great spot.”
He’s at 10
Nick Pivetta’s feelings about the “win” statistic are not unique.
“I’m a little more (objective) when it comes to wins, because I think a lot of pitchers can have great games and not get a win,” he said. “So I think it’s just more about just how many zeros and how quick I can get it, how (few) walks I can give up, just how much I can pound the strike zone. And if a win comes, a win comes. But for me, it’s just continue to pitch, throw up zeros and do my thing.”
Fair enough. In fact, Pivetta did not get the win in his previous start after allowing one unearned run in 6⅔ innings. And he did not get the win in the start before that despite throwing 5⅔ scoreless innings.
But it still seems significant that Pivetta yesterday became one of just 15 pitchers to have at least 10 wins in at least three of the past four seasons.
Consistently winning at that pace at least suggests a starting pitcher who is in games long enough (at least five innings) and pitching well enough on a regular basis.
Pivetta entered 2025 having never posted an ERA below 4.04 in any of his eight major league seasons. But he has made at least 26 starts five times in the seven seasons it was possible. He has thrown at least 142⅔ in innings five times. He has worked into the sixth inning in 97 of his 198 career starts.
The difference this year is that his fastball is running as well as ever, he is locating his curveball on the edges of the zone, and he is giving up far fewer hits and surrendering far fewer home runs.
Pivetta did give up his 13th homer yesterday, to Riley Adams in the fifth inning, but he allowed just two other hits, walked one and struck out five in six innings. It was his 13th time in his 20 starts that he finished at least six innings, tied for 14th most in the major leagues.
He lowered his ERA to 2.81, sixth in the National League, and his WHIP to 1.00, fourth in the NL.
“It’s pretty obvious,” he said. “I’m pitching really well this year, better than I ever have. So I think it’s just like managing it. When you get gifted a game like today, you just try to manage it as much as you can and just go ahead and just attack the guys, try to put them on their heels as much as you can.”
Sitting middle
We have reached the point in the season where the standings are actually important.
“You’re gonna look up at the end of this road trip and you’re going to be two-thirds of the way through the season,” Shildt said at the start of the series. “Now is the time to go. It’s time to go every day, but there is a finite end to the season, and we’re gaining on it.”
Said Gavin Sheets: “Now is when it goes from a marathon to a little bit more of a sprint.”
Whatever it is, this National League playoff race is getting interesting.
The Padres, who played their 99th game yesterday, hold a 2½-game lead over the Giants and Reds for the third wild-card spot. But they are also as close to the NL West-leading Dodgers in terms of losses as they are to the Giants and Reds.
Tonight against the Marlins, the Padres will attempt to improve to 10 games above .500 for the first time since June 10. They have lost both of the previous two times in the past 33 games they had a chance to get to 10 over.
Their season high is 12 games above .500, the last of three times being at 27-15 on May 14.
Maldonado stays
Martín Maldonado caught for Yu Darvish on Saturday and will catch for Randy Vásquez tonight. He has started 51 of the Padres’ 99 games. And it appears he will start many more.
Any push from outside the clubhouse to give up on the light-hitting Maldonado has been quashed, at least for now.
The Padres may still add a catcher at the trade deadline, but they have other pressing needs and Maldonado is highly valued by manager Shildt, the pitching coaches and the pitchers.
Primarily, how Maldonado and Díaz have assisted in preparing and have handled young pitchers Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek and Vásquez has been widely lauded. And there is a strong reluctance to make a change when those pitchers have been so integral to the Padres winning as much as they have with Darvish and Michael King having missed so much time.
There was a sentiment from multiple people in the organization that the time had come to move on from Maldonado and perhaps give Luis Campusano a shot while the team searched for outside help.
But there is not an appetite to alter the dynamic between the catchers and a starting rotation that has outperformed expectations given the absences of two of its top pitchers.
Maldonado hit a game-tying double Saturday night, his first extra-base hit in 24 at-bats. He was 1-for-2 before being lifted for a pinch-hitter, as he has been in 60% of his starts. That improved his line to .183/.225/.305 for the season.
Diaz, who homered and singled yesterday after entering the game hitless in his previous 23 at-bats, is batting .198/.270/.307.
The Padres’ catchers rank 27th in average and 28th in OPS among all MLB catching groups.
Whether they favored keeping Maldonado or not, virtually everyone agrees that the spotlight on how the catchers are hitting would not be as bright if other areas of the lineup were more productive.
That primarily means the players the Padres already have, but the team does continue to seek at least one impact bat and to fortify its bench in advance of the July 31 trade deadline.
Have to find a way
As the trade deadline approaches, those familiar with some of the team’s talks say the Padres are inclined to rely on president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s creativity versus throwing money at their offense problem.
The Padres do not seem inclined to commit significantly more resources than they already have to a payroll that stands at $211 million with a CBT payroll that is slightly over the second threshold and would already require them to pay more than $4 million in penalties.
So a sort of buy and sell approach, wherein they swap some salary commitments, has been increasingly seen as a way to get the impact bat they need.
Slam Diego, D.C.
Since earning the moniker of “Slam Diego” by becoming the first major league team to hit a grand slam in four consecutive games in 2020, the Padres have ranked in the bottom half of the league in grand slams over the past five seasons.
Their seven grand slams from 2023 to ‘24 ranked 22nd in MLB, and they did not have any this season until Machado hit one in the ninth inning Friday.
But the Nationals must think that “Slam Diego” never stopped thriving.
The Padres’ past four grand slams have come against Washington.
That being true, though, means the Padres have not hit a grand slam against any other team since Cronenworth did so against the Reds on May 1, 2024.
Seeing is believing
Padres hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, who worked with Bogaerts in the minor and major leagues as a member of the Red Sox organization, has lamented for two years that Padres fans “have not seen the real Xander.”
They are seeing him now.
With his grand slam and a single yesterday, Bogaerts is now batting .382/.461/.562 over the past 25 games.
His 1.023 OPS in that span is reminiscent of the kind of heaters he would go on relatively regularly during his decade in Boston. Before this run, he’d had just one similar stretch for the Padres, in September 2023.
Bogaerts is chasing at an 18% rate over the past 25 games, down from 22% before that.
“I’m swinging at good pitches,” he said this weekend. “Mechanically, I’m feeling right.”
The notorious tinkerer is in a good place.
“You change until you feel the way you want to feel,” he said. “I feel good.”
Said Shildt: “We’re getting an All-Star version of Bogey.”
Two-way Jose
The Padres never gave much — if anything — up defensively when Jose Iglesias has subbed in at third base, second or shortstop.
Lately, his bat has joined his glove as a valuable component.
Iglesias was 2-for-5 yesterday and is batting .416 (10-for-24) during a seven-game hitting streak that dates to July 7, raising his average to .244 and his on-base percentage to .302 for the season.
He started his 10th game at shortstop yesterday, as Bogaerts served as designated hitter. Iglesias has started 28 games at second base, 10 at third and once in left field.
“Just a really, really smart player that knows how to win, and he does things to help you win on both sides of the ball,” Shildt said. “So he’s just a nice piece of our team.”
Tidbits
- Tatis was 0-for-3 with a walk, which was enough to extend his on-base streak to 18 games. That is tied for the third-longest active streak in the major leagues.
- Cronenworth doubled twice off Gore and has eight hits in his past 16 at-bats against left-handed pitchers. His .250 average against left-handers this season is 35 points higher than his average against lefties over the previous two seasons.
- Jackson Merrill was scratched from yesterday’s lineup with what Shildt described after the game as a stomach ailment. Shild said Merrill might have been available off the bench had he been needed yesterday, and the manager sounded optimistic Merrill would play tonight in Miami.
- Bryce Johnson started in center field in place of Merrill and went 2-for-4. Johnson is batting .333 (9-for-27) since being called up on June 16.
- Johnson also laid down the Padres’ MLB-leading 28th sacrifice bunt of the season.
- When Tyler Wade pinch-hit for Tatis in the seventh inning, it was his first plate appearance of July. I wrote about why that is (here) the other day.
- Arraez, who finished the first half on a 1-for-20 skid, was 1-for-5 yesterday and went 5-for-12 in the three-game series in Washington.
- Machado was 1-for-2 with a double and walked three times yesterday. It was his first three-walk game of the season and the first time he drew three walks without an intentional walk since Aug. 18 2023.
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.