Jacksonville’s arrow was pointing in the wrong direction in January when the Jaguars notched their 13th loss, their most since the Urban Meyer year in 2021. There’s hope, however.
Four NFL teams last year (Denver, the Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota and Washington) qualified for the postseason after missing the playoffs in 2023. For 35 straight years (1990-2024), at least four clubs have rebounded from missing the playoffs the prior season to earn postseason berths.
For the Jaguars to join that group, they’ll need meaningful contributions from three players, one on offense and two on defense.
Tank Bigsby isn’t guaranteed the starting role in a crowded training-camp position battle, but the Jaguars need him to seize that opportunity. ESPN analytics writer Ben Solak said Bigsby from Weeks 5-18 in 2024 clearly outperformed Travis Etienne.
The Jaguars’ second-round selection in the 2023 draft, Bigsby recorded a 0.01 EPA per rush compared to Etienne’s minus-0.13, and outrushed Etienne over that stretch 147-103. Bigsby also compiled a 38.8-percent success rate (Etienne finished at 35.9 percent) and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt (Etienne had 1.36).
In addition to harnessing that momentum, Bigsby also needs to harness the football. Among running backs, his four fumbles were among the highest in the league; only Rhamondre Stevenson (seven), Breece Hall (six), Aaron Jones (five), Kyren Williams (five) and Tyrone Tracy (five) had more.
Defensive tackle Maason Smith enters his second NFL season with expectations as large as his 6-5, 325-pound frame. Like Bigsby a second-round selection (Jacksonville drafted him 48th overall last year), Smith had three sacks and three pass deflections in 11 games as a rookie. The new coaching staff is counting on him, especially since the Jaguars didn’t address one of their biggest needs in the draft, defensive tackle.
“He’s a big one for us,” head coach Liam Coen said last month. “We need him to take a huge step this year. I think he’s done a great job when you talk about the offseason program, and the weight room, and the conditioning.
“Ultimately, when you’re 325 pounds and you can move, and you’ve got long arms … Man, he’s got the want-to. I’ve seen that so far. Ultimately, it’s got to continue to translate, and I think it will. I think the coaches have done a great job getting him going, and he’s dedicated himself to it so far.”
Travon Walker can help. The Jaguars’ fourth-year edge rusher is ready to finally meet expectations that came with his pedigree as the first-overall selection in the 2022 draft. And he’s expected to take another step forward because he’s expected to get paid.
Curiously when discussing elite edge rushers eligible for lucrative contract extensions, national pundits routinely forget about Walker, who had 10 sacks in 2023 and 10½ in 2024. He’s one of only 13 NFL players with 20-plus sacks since the beginning of the ’23 season. And, Coen and the new staff love him.
“You just take everything into account,” OnSI Jaguars insider John Shipley said Thursday on Jacksonville Sportsradio 1010XL, “his draft pedigree, his production, the fact that every coaching staff and every front office who has been with the franchise since he’s been here has absolutely loved the guy, including the new one.
“You talk to people in the building, like I have over the course of the offseason, and he is one of the guys that this new regime is just all-in on.”
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