On the eve of Primary Day in New York City, a new poll hints at the possibility of a major upset in the race for mayor.
Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old Assemblyman from Queens, leads the man who’s been the overwhelming frontrunner, Andrew Cuomo, the 67-year-old former governor. That’s according to a new poll from Emerson College.
The poll shows Cuomo leading after the first round of ranked-choice voting, but only falling behind Mamdani in the eighth and final round.
The survey polled likely Democratic voters and was conducted from June 18 to June 20, after the second mayoral debate.
A campaign spokesperson for Cuomo dismissed the reliability of the poll.
“This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election — including two released last week — has shown Governor Cuomo with a double digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow. Between now and then we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as Mayor,” Rich Azzopardi told News 4.
In a Marist poll published last week, Cuomo broke the 50% threshold in the seventh round of ranked-choice voting.
“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll,” Kimball’s statement continued.
Unless one candidates wins 50% of the vote or more in the initial round, the results will be determined on July 1 after the Board of Elections calculates the ranked-choice voting stats.
Polls will be open in New York City on Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.