Julian Edlow breaks down a college football win total angle on the Georgia Bulldogs.

Can you defeat Texas as an underdog twice, including in the SEC Championship game, and beat two other College Football Playoff teams en route to an 11-3 season and still call it a disappointment? When you’re Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs, you can.

Prior to 2025, the Dawgs were on a run that saw them go a combined 42-2 over the previous three seasons. They went a perfect 12-0 in all three regular seasons, and both losses came to Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Games. That’s a hell of a run.

Reality set in to a degree in 2025, although UGA was still pretty damn good. A gauntlet on the road caught up to Smart and his team, playing at Texas (which they won as a five-point dog), but losing as a short favorite at Alabama and Ole Miss. The loss at ‘Bama was Georgia’s first regular season loss since the 2020 Covid season, and the following loss to the Rebels put UGA under its win total of 10.5.

Outside of the shortened Covid season, the only time Smart has failed to win at least 10 regular season games as the Head Coach at UGA was back in 2016 — his first season at the helm. While it’s heavily juiced to the over, getting 9.5 wins as Georgia’s win total this season is something I can’t pass up a play on.

The Dawgs thrive at home under Kirby, so I’m not going to let a couple of tough road losses last season change my thinking of this team. UGA has won 31 consecutive games in Athens, with the last loss coming in double overtime to South Carolina, back in October of 2019. The schedule falls perfectly for the Bulldogs in 2025, with seven home games, two neutral games and just three true road games.

Unlike the elite competition UGA had to face on the road in 2024, this time around it gets Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State — currently favored by a touchdown or more in each game. The neutral games against Florida (Jacksonville) and Georgia Tech (Atlanta) are also games the Dawgs are priced as heavy favorites.

The tough opponents have to come between the hedges, with UGA priced at -4 vs. ‘Bama and -2.5 vs. Texas. That leaves Georgia favored in all 12 games this season.

Of course, this team lost plenty to the NFL Draft, along with Carson Beck to Miami. That said, the program simply reloads with talent each time around. The big question marks will be quarterback and wide receiver, and I trust Smart has those positions under control. Gunner Stockton should be improved with the offseason to prepare as the starter. Outside of improving as a passer, look for Stockton to add an exiting mobile QB element to the offense. As for the pass-catchers, they look much more talented than 2024. Obvious upgrades were made, including key transfers of WR1 from both USC and Texas.

I’ll take the discount on Georgia and expect them to win at least 10 games, play in the SEC Championship Game and be a contender in the CFP.

CFB Win Total Play: Georgia OVER 9.5 Wins (-170) – 2-units

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