Julian Edlow breaks down a college football win total angle on the Oklahoma Sooners.

After a solid 10-2 showing in 2023, the Oklahoma Sooners saw major regression in 2024. Following a 3-0 start against soft competition, the Sooners finished the regular season just 6-6. Perhaps a “welcome to the SEC” moment for the program. Two of those final three wins did come as SEC underdogs, though, on the road at Auburn, and vs. Alabama. Brent Venables calling card has always been his defense, and that was never really the issue for Oklahoma. Keep in mind, the defense held a ‘Bama team competing for a College Football Playoff spot to just three points in November.

The issue for the Sooners was really about what they lacked on offense — a capable quarterback or any weapons to distribute the ball to. With Dillon Gabriel’s departure to Oregon, Oklahoma was forced to start a freshman at QB, and eventually bench him for another freshman. Both of them were asked to play behind an inexperience offensive line, and at times during the season, the Sooners were operating without their top five wide receivers on the depth chart. That’s just begging for disaster.

This season I expect the offense to be cleaned up, and that makes the Sooners a completely different team. John Mateer comes in from Washington State and provides Oklahoma with a talented and experienced signal caller. The offensive line should be sured up, with both returning starters and transfers that have starts under their belts. The backfield gets bolstered with talented rusher Jaydn Ott, a veteran from Cal. And maybe most importantly, the WR room is skilled and healthy. Highlighted by Deion Burkes, who came from Purdue and missed eight games last season, Oklahoma returns and adds strong receiver play that simply wasn’t available last season.

If the Sooners can win key games at home early in the season against Michigan and Auburn (I’ve already bet them -130 ML vs. MICH), a 5-0 start is on the table entering the Cotton Bowl against Texas (where I’ll likely take the points with OU). The schedule finishes tough, but other than a road trip to Tuscaloosa, no game on the schedule is unable to be won.

Last year, Oklahoma struggled adjusting to the SEC, on top of all the injuries. Not to mention, the schedule only yielded three SEC home games. This season is the complete opposite, with only three true SEC road games on the schedule. Phil Steele has the Sooners ranked as his No. 1 “Surprise Team” and No. 3 “Most Improved Team” in his magazine.

The defense doesn’t need to prove anything to me, so with an offense that can’t possibly rival last season’s putrid output, I’m buying on Oklahoma to take a step forward in 2025.

CFB Win Total Play: Oklahoma OVER 6.5 Wins (-170) – 1-unit

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