Parish-by-Parish: Flooding likely across Louisiana through Friday morning
RIVER FLOODING. ALL RIGHT, RIGHT NOW, WDSU FIRST WARNING WEATHER CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SCOTT PELLEY IS HERE WITH ANOTHER LOOK AT WHAT EXACTLY WE’RE SEEING RIGHT NOW. SCOTT, THERE ARE SO MANY DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS THAT I LOOK AT IN ANY GIVEN DAY. AND I’VE GOT TO TELL YOU, ALL THE VOLATILITY THAT WE’VE BEEN SEEING WITH THE FORECAST MODELS HAS BEEN TRULY SOMETHING. AND THAT’S WHY THIS IS SUCH A TRICKY FORECAST. THE TAKEAWAY IS BE PREPARED FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. IS IT A SLAM DUNK THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW AND INTO THURSDAY. NO. BUT WE’VE GOT TO BE PREPARED BECAUSE SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. YOU CAN SEE THE HIGH END SCENARIO. THE AREAS IN YELLOW HIGHLIGHTING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 8, EVEN TEN PLUS INCHES OF RAIN IN THE YELLOW. THE BRIGHT YELLOW SPEC’S. GREATEST RAIN COVERAGE ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THEN YOU LOOK AT OTHER FORECAST MODELS THAT ACTUALLY SHOW LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN NEW ORLEANS TO HOUMA TO BELLE CHASSE. THE BULL’S EYE ON THIS MODEL IS ACTUALLY FROM BATON ROUGE TOWARDS MCCOMB, MISSISSIPPI. SO YOU SEE THE VOLATILITY IN THESE TWO FORECAST MODELS. THE TAKEAWAY IS RAIN IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM FOR SOMEONE. LET ME SHOW YOU WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBER ONE IS LOCATED RIGHT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. AND THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS WE GO INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. NOTICE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40MPH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON LAND SOMEWHERE CLOSE TOWARDS LAKE CHARLES AND SULFUR, LOUISIANA TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW FLYING ALL THE WAY TO MORGAN CITY, HIGHLIGHTED IN BLUE. WE HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COAST, STRETCHING BASICALLY FROM MORGAN CITY TOWARDS GRAND ISLE AND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TIDES COULD BE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3FT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY. WIND AND REALLY COASTAL FLOODING. NOT THE BIG CONCERNS WITH THIS. IT’S ALL ABOUT THE RAINFALL NAME OR NO NAME. THE RAIN IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN STORYLINE FOR SOMEONE. HERE’S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT 3:00. YOU CAN SEE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. IT LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING. THAT’S WHEN THIS PARTICULAR MODEL JUST REALLY DRENCHES SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, A TREND THAT I’VE BEEN WATCHING TONIGHT IS SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING I-10 TO I-12 AND NORTHWARD IS THE BULL’S EYE FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN. BUT FORECAST MODELS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE. LET ME SHOW YOU A MORE ZOOMED IN LOOK TONIGHT. KIND OF SOME SCATTERED STORMS OUT AND ABOUT, MAINLY NEAR THE COASTLINE. TOMORROW MAY NOT START OFF ALL THAT BAD, BUT THEN AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON, A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THAT SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN, THAT’S WHEN WE’RE GOING TO START TO SEE MORE LOCALIZED BANDING OF STORMS DEVELOP. AND THERE COULD LITERALLY BE SOME SPOTS THAT PICK UP ONE INCH OF RAIN. BUT IF YOU FIND YOURSELF UNDER ONE OF THESE PERSISTENT BANDS OF RAIN, YOU COULD PICK UP DOUBLE DIGIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY 10:00. NOTICE ONE OF THOSE BANDS OVER PARTS OF SAINT TAMMANY PARISH. ANOTHER ONE OVER PARTS OF SAINT CHARLES PARISH, ANOTHER ONE BACK TOWARDS PARTS OF SAINT MARTIN PARISH AND LAFAYETTE PARISH. THOSE ARE GOING TO BE THE BANDS THAT WE’RE WATCHING OUT FOR, FOR NOT ONLY THE RAINFALL THREAT, BUT ALSO FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, SOMETHING THAT I’M WATCHING IN ADDITION IS THE WIND SHEAR FORECAST, BECAUSE WIND SHEAR, WE LOVE TO SEE WIND SHEAR. IT KEEPS SYSTEMS FROM ORGANIZING RAPIDLY. IT HINDERS THEM FROM STRENGTHENING. BUT IN THIS CASE, THE WIND SHEAR IS GOING TO BE COMING OUT OF THE WEST. SO EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST, SOME OF THE WORST WEATHER IS GOING TO BE DOWNWIND OF THE WIND SHEAR. AND THAT COULD PUT THE BULL’S EYE OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE NEARBY. SO HOT SPOTS OF OVER TEN INCHES OF RAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THOUGH, MANAGEABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4IN OF RAIN. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THOSE STORMS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. BUT AGAIN, THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IT’S ALL ABOUT THE RAINFALL THREAT. I’VE POSTED WDSU FIRST WARNING WEATHER ALERT DAYS TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY. IMPACT
Parish-by-Parish: Flooding likely across Louisiana through Friday morning
Updated: 10:51 PM CDT Jun 16, 2026
NEW ORLEANS —
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is nearing the Texas coast, and is still expected to bring life-threatening flooding to portions of Texas and Louisiana.
The system is moving northeast at 6 mph and is expected to move farther offshore of the Texas coast overnight. It will then move back inland over extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana Wednesday night. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center still keeps the track East.
This will increase rain chances for areas like Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, Alexandria, Covington, Hammond, New Orleans, Picayune, Hattiesburg, and Jackson.These areas should prepare for rain up to 10 to 12 inches over the next few days.A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from Sabine Pass to Morgan City.
A Flood Watch is in effect for most of southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi through Friday morning as a tropical system threatens the region with heavy rain and localized flooding.