Earlier today, we wrote about Charlie Batch’s comments about the Pittsburgh Steelers becoming a pass-first team under Mike McCarthy. Even with a soon-to-be 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers and two talented backs in Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, the Steelers are expected to lean on its passing game. Former NFL coach Tim Lester can attest to that. He recently shared his experience playing McCarthy, and the pattern that quickly became clear.

“Our first playoff game three years ago, it was the Cowboys,” Lester said on the ANF podcast (hat tip to reader Brogan who alerted me to the comments). “With Dak Prescott. Round 1 of the playoffs. For whatever reason, Mike McCarthy would not call two runs in a row. He just wouldn’t do it. I’ve never seen statistical evidence, and I majored in math. So I love numbers. I went to our d-coordinator and went, ‘Hey buddy, this is insane. They will not run the ball. They won’t. And if they do, they can have 8 yards.’

“They’d run on 1st down for 8 yards. They’d throw on 2nd and 2, throw on 3rd and 2, and punt. Play shell coverage. They’re going to throw the ball. Dare them to run it twice in a row. I think they did it one time. They ran for 8 and 7 and went pass, pass, pass punt. It was unbelievable.”

A longtime college coach who is the offensive coordinator at Iowa, Lester spent the 2023 season as a senior analyst for the Green Bay Packers. With a 9-8 record and second-place finish in the NFC North, Green Bay clinched a Wild Card spot and travelled to Dallas for the Wild Card Round. The Cowboys entered as touchdown favorites but ran into immediate trouble, trailing 27-0 until the final play of the first half. Green Bay kept the pressure on after the break and won, 48-32.

Is Lester’s story true? Partially. In the playoff game itself, not so much. Through the first three quarters, including receiver carries, there were five instances of Dallas running the ball on back-to-back plays. Including on Dallas’ first two plays of the game – Tony Pollard runs of six and one yard.

Dallas did finish the game with 60 passes compared to 25 rushes but much of that was circumstantial. The Cowboys had a predictably pass-heavy two-minute drive to close out the first half, ending in a TE Jake Ferguson touchdown. The offense spent the fourth quarter passing in a desperate comeback bid.

However, in the Cowboys’ final two regular-season games, there were only six combined instances of the offense running the ball back-to-back times (one of which was a four-straight carry sequence). A deeper study would be needed to assess true answers, but that is one piece of evidence in Lester’s favor.

Tested, Lester’s story doesn’t fully check out. It’s fair to assume in game planning, he picked up on a trend of Dallas double-dipping runs infrequently. In the playoff game, that pattern didn’t quite hold as strong.

Throughout the 2023 regular season, Dallas preferred to throw. It finished eighth in pass attempts and 14th in rushes. But the team understandably leaned on franchise quarterback Dak Prescott to make plays to star receiver CeeDee Lamb.

With Aaron Rodgers in his final season, McCarthy must find offensive balance. Rodgers can’t be treated like Prescott and throw the ball nearly 600 times like Dallas did that season. It’s reasonable to assume McCarthy understands that and will lean on the running game when needed, though it will be a stat worth monitoring throughout the season.