PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Expect a warm holiday weekend around Arizona with periods of high clouds, especially in the southern portions of the state.
With the clouds, overnight lows will come up in most locations, so those nice lows in the 70s around metro Phoenix are probably done for a while. Lows through the weekend will be in the mid-80s.
Highs on Saturday will be held down a bit because of the mostly cloudy conditions. We’ve penciled in 105 degrees for Phoenix. That would make for a below-average Fourth of July as far as temperatures are concerned.
As the clouds clear Sunday and a strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the east, we are going to see hot temperatures next week. Sunday, we’ll be around 109 degrees, but by Wednesday, we have 114 degrees in the forecast.
It’s also possible we’ll issue a First Alert for heat next week on at least one day, but we need to get closer in time to have more confidence in specific numbers.
As for the arrival of the monsoon, there’s really not anything setting up that would indicate a strong surge of moisture. We will see a few thunderstorms begin redeveloping in southeast Arizona.
If you want to be positive about rain chances, look to next Sunday, July 12. There’s one scenario that, if it plays out, would give Phoenix a decent chance for afternoon and evening storms. But we really have no confidence in that right now.
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