One of the biggest trades of the offseason has yet to happen. As each day goes by, and teams finalize their rosters for the 2026-27 season, the chances of Dylan Larkin remaining with the Detroit Red Wings continue to grow.

In early June, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reported that General Manager Steve Yzerman was not finding any offers to his liking from the three teams that were on Larkin’s original list after he requested a trade: the Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, and Vegas Golden Knights. On the heels of that insight, LeBrun indicated that Yzerman revisited talks with Larkin’s agent, Pat Brisson, and requested that the center expand his list of teams. At the time, it was believed that Larkin was open to that idea, but we now know that wasn’t the case.

Earlier today, Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press shared that Larkin hasn’t expanded his list beyond Florida, Minnesota, and Vegas. Unsurprisingly, St. James indicated that Yzerman was looking for current roster players, and not future assets. The Red Wings are looking to enter another era of competitiveness, and given that all three teams on Larkin’s list are in theirs, it’s unlikely that they’d be willing to give several players from their roster.

Regardless of what they would have to give, cap space has also become a serious concern for all three teams. Florida and Minnesota both have approximately $1MM in breathing room, whereas the Golden Knights have around $200K after placing Alex Pietrangelo‘s contract on SELTIR. Given that reality, each team would have to match the salary ($8.7MM) back to Detroit for Larkin. The Red Wings have their own issues with Larkin’s no-trade clause, and a quick look at the cap breakdown of his preferred destinations shows that any combination of players headed back to Detroit (within reason) would have their own trade-protection hurdles to overcome.

As much as Larkin controls his own destiny with his no-trade clause, that implies that he will be traded. As Yzerman showed with Jonathan Drouin when he was General Manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning, he has no issue holding on to a player until he gets an offer to his liking. If he’s not traded, the Red Wings get to uphold their part of the contract as much as Larkin gets to his. He’s still contractually committed to Detroit until the 2030-31 season, and teams have the power to suspend and withhold salary from players if they don’t report.

Given how much this trade request has played out in the media, it’s highly likely that not trading Larkin this summer will have negative impacts in the locker room come September. They are professional athletes at the end of the day, but there is a human element to this. It wouldn’t be typical for any other players on Detroit to comment on the situation, but it’s hard to imagine a lot of them taking this well, especially from their captain. Still, that’s only informed conjecture.

Regardless, if Larkin and Brisson aren’t going to expand their list, it’s becoming increasingly likely that Larkin will begin the 2026-27 season with the Red Wings. As previously mentioned, Larkin doesn’t have the same benefit as Brady Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes, who are nearing extension eligibility and could put more pressure on their respective clubs by saying they wouldn’t sign one.