Everyone in Phoenix is wondering where the monsoon rain is, and whether you’re optimistic or deeply skeptical of the summer forecasts, we’re here to tell you — a shift is coming. 

Over the weekend, an ideal monsoon set-up will fall into place: High pressure will situate to our east-northeast, around the Rockies in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, then expand into the Northern Plains. That clockwise, high-pressure motion will pull in moisture from our east-southeast for at least the first half of next week.

More specifically, models show big influxes of moisture at all heights of the atmosphere beginning late Sunday, July 12, all over the state. Relative humidity values will average over 50% throughout the atmosphere and dew point temperatures will range in the 50s and 60s in lower parts of the atmosphere.

Meanwhile, high temperatures fall back down closer to average, around 105 to 108 degrees, and heat risk falls down to moderate levels.

In metro Phoenix, rain chances vary from 20-40% in the afternoons and evenings, and estimated totals range from a few hundredths to nearly a quarter inch near the Mogollon Rim by the end of the week. These are summertime thunderstorms: they’re scattered, fast-moving and short-lived. So not everyone will get their chance to see some raindrops. (But if you do, send us some pictures and videos.)

Now if you’re still here and willing to be a bit more optimistic, keep reading.

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Long range forecasts are also looking up

Outlooks are positive that more waves of this monsoonal pattern could come beyond next week, extending our wetter period.

Ensemble forecast models generally agree that the high pressure ridge will meander around western and central parts of the United States beyond the middle of July. This would keep waves of moist air coming intermittently from southerly and easterly directions.

Meteorologists frown upon showing definitive forecasts far beyond a week ahead, but check out these maps from the Climate Prediction Center that lead into the second-to-last week of July.

When you look at the temperature outlooks, the areas of the darker “above average” reds could be estimated locations of high-pressure ridge axes at some point. Using the same knowledge of high pressure rotating clockwise, those placements could signify that upper air coming into Arizona would be from places with higher moisture content, a.k.a. to our south and/or east. That’s supported by precipitation outlooks showing above average rainfall in Arizona.

It will become clearer as the days draw closer, but until then, fingers crossed.

Meteorologist Tevian Whitehurst covers extreme weather and climate for The Republic and azcentral.com. Follow him at @TevianWX on Instagram and Facebook (Meteorologist Tevian Whitehurst).

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Phoenix rain chances are up after a quiet start to the monsoon