What will Will Smith’s next contract look like?

The San Jose Sharks winger won’t be an RFA until next season, but he’s eligible for an extension this summer.

San Jose Hockey Now spoke with an NHL player agent, not Smith’s, to discuss different comps and scenarios, how the Leo Carlsson offer sheet might impact Smith, and his contract recommendation for Smith.

The 2023 No. 4 pick put up 24 goals and 59 points in 69 games last season, his 20-year-old campaign. That’s 0.86 Points Per Game.

So I looked for other salary cap era wingers who registered 0.75 to 0.95 Points Per Game in 50-plus appearances in their 20-year-old season, eligible for an extension but not an RFA. These wingers were also power play-focused, offense-first wingers.

Five comps stand out.

Ivan Demidov

Nikolaj Ehlers

Tyler Seguin

Taylor Hall

Patrick Kane

Based on these comps, a Will Smith extension with an AAV from roughly eight to 11 percent of the $113 million cap in 2027-28 makes sense.

“If I were representing him, I’d sign a five-year deal at $10 to $11 million,” the agent said. “And wait and see how much the cap goes up.”

That’s 8.8 to 9.7 percent of the 2027-28 salary cap.

While this is noticeably higher than Demidov’s recently-inked extension, this is acknowledging that Leo Carlsson’s $18 million AAV offer sheet may have raised the expectations for fledgling extension candidates around the league. Demidov signed his extension before the Carlsson offer sheet.

“Hard part is predicting the cap and how much it goes up,” the agent said. “San Jose is [part of] a high tax state, so that all factors in, too.”

For the San Jose Sharks, question is, are they ready for that kind of commitment to Smith?

Alternatively, they could offer a three-year extension, in the vein of William Eklund’s last off-season, to the tune of perhaps $25.5 million? $8.5 million AAV is 7.5 percent of the 2027-28 cap.

At the other end of the spectrum, this off-season is the last time that the Sharks can offer Smith an eight-year extension. Would $100 million do it? That $12.5 million AAV is 11.1 percent of the 2027-28 cap.

These figures might have seemed a little far-fetched just a month ago, but once again, the Carlsson offer sheet might have raised everybody’s boats.

There’s also the possibility that both sides can play out the 2026-27 campaign without an extension.

The San Jose Sharks can wait to see if Smith can take another step before paying him big. Smith’s career, so far, has been made up of an up-and-down rookie year and an injury-hampered sophomore campaign.

Of course, in this scenario, the specter of the offer sheet hangs over everything, if the Sharks allow Smith to be unsigned by next Jul. 1.

As for Smith, he can bet on himself, using Mitch Marner as a model.

Marner, in his 20-year-old campaign, had 69 points in 82 contests in 2017-18, good for 0.84 Points Per Game. Like Smith, that was after the second year of his ELC, eligible for an extension but not an RFA yet.

The high-octane winger exploded the following season, dropping 26 goals and 94 points.

On Sept. 13, 2019, Marner inked a six-year, $65.41 million pact. That $10.9 million AAV was 13.37 percent of 2019-20’s $81.5 million cap.

In 2027-28 cap terms, that’s a six-year, $90.6 million deal ($15.1 million AAV).

So if Smith breaks out this coming season, he will make considerably more money next summer.

Is that a risk that the Sharks are willing to take?