Since the start of the year, Democrats and legacy media pundits have predicted a blue wave for Democrats in the midterms, based on historical trends and Republicans’ slim advantage in the House. But new polling reveals Dems may not catch that wave after all. The Real Clear Politics Average on the generic ballot has fallen from Democrats +8 to Democrats +5 over the past six weeks. And one poll from this week has the generic ballot in a virtual tie, with Republicans gaining four points and Democrats losing three.
This new polling comes on the heels of more bad news for Democrats. Recent swing state polling showed Republicans holding a slight edge in competitive Senate races, and that was before the collapse of Graham Platner’s candidacy in Maine. Now, a Democrat polling firm has North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper’s lead down to just four points in his Senate race against Republican Michael Whatley, after Cooper led by nearly double digits at one point.
So what gives? Dr. Jacquie Baly, University of Houston political science professor, believes key issues have improved for Republicans in recent weeks. “The voters are looking at what’s actually happening in real time,” she tells KTRH. “And as we move further toward the midterm election, it looks like the key factors that are impacting the economy are in Republicans’ favor.”
In particular, Baly notes that both inflation and the situation in Iran have stabilized since the spring. “Because of those two factors—one happening here, and one happening abroad—you’re seeing Republicans inching up and getting a slight edge in a lot of polling,” she says. “Because overall, voters generally support Republicans when it comes to foreign affairs and handling of the economy.”
Another factor hurting Democrats is the surge in radical socialist candidates winning primary races, which is turning off moderate and independent voters. Dr. Baly believes Republicans can win back those independents who voted for President Trump in 2024, if the economy continues to improve. “As long as we see prices and interest rates leveling off or even lowering, then that will translate into the message that helped Trump win before, and it will help Republicans in the midterm elections,” she says.