QuickTake:

With snowpack hitting record lows this winter, Lane County has faced a July defined by extreme drought conditions and a heightened wildfire threat.

It’s been generally pleasant this summer in Lane County. 

Average temperatures. Limited wildfire smoke. 

But it’s been dry — and that’s setting up August and September for escalating drought conditions and wildfire threats, according to Oregon State Climatologist Larry O’Neill.  

“This summer is really important in terms of just seeing how resilient we are to it, and specifically to our water supply, to our economy, wildfire risk, and things like that,” O’Neill said. “This will be kind of a learning experience for us to see if we are able to weather the storm, or do we need to do more?”

Low snowpack combined with lower winter rainfall amounts means this year’s drought is anticipated to overtake the historic summer drought of 2015, caused by what the U.S. Department of Agriculture calls the “Great Western Snow Drought.” That means this year’s drought could become the worst on record, O’Neill said. 

As of July 30, all of Lane County is in some form of drought, as designated by the U.S. Drought Monitor, and two-thirds of the county is in severe or extreme conditions.

Why is drought so bad? 

Last winter’s record-breaking warmth meant high elevation precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, prompting the worst snowpack in state history. In March of this year, when snowpack typically is at its peak, it was 75% below average, the lowest on record at that time, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Additionally, the last 18 months, from January 2025 through June 2026, were the sixth-driest stretch for the county, O’Neill said. 

In all, 21 of Oregon’s 36 Oregon counties have received drought declarations. Drought declarations are approved by the governor when drought conditions have an adverse impact on farming and agriculture, recreation and wildfire risk. Drought declarations clear the way for access to state emergency water rights tools.

Lane County has yet to submit its declaration, but O’Neill said that the required conditions are already present. 

As this dry summer persists, the conditions will put more demand on groundwater resources. 

“People have wells, and during times of drought, when there’s scarcity in surface water, people pump more out of their wells, causing groundwater to deplete much faster than it normally would,” O’Neill said. 

With droughts becoming more frequent and extreme, groundwater levels in almost all of the state are declining. 

Additionally, the lack of water is forcing the state to draw down reservoirs. In the Willamette Valley, the reservoir system is roughly 30% below what water managers target for this time of year, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 

O’Neill said it could take many years for those reservoir systems to fully recover, unless next year is historically wet — and that could be in the cards.”It looks locked in that it’s highly likely we’ll get a very strong El Niño event,” he said. 

Since the 1980s, Oregon has had three such events, and those have brought average to above-average precipitation to Oregon.

“Based on previous El Niño events, this one could end up being wet, which could be exactly what we need to recover from the drought,” he said. 

The last strong El Niño event occurred right after the 2015 drought, giving a significant boost to Oregon reservoir and groundwater levels, according to the Oregon Water Resources Department.

Wildfire risk and management

Scientists and experts warned of a devastating wildfire season, and for most of the state that’s been true. As of July 31, nearly 1.9 million acres have been burned, approaching the most ever recorded. It’s about 2.5% of the state’s area.

However, despite generally dry conditions, Lane County has for the most part been spared large blazes. 

“We also had a bit of rain in mid-to-late June, and some cool weather that I think helped keep things from drying out too early,” he said. A nighttime marine layer that brings in cloudy and foggy morning weather has been common throughout July, he added. “All those things keep moisture in the soil and in the vegetation.”

Thunderstorms that rolled over Lane County last week resulted in fire weather watches in portions of the region. However, the storms brought just enough rain to ease fire danger, and the lightning was concentrated over the Willamette Valley where there are significantly fewer standing forests. 

In Lane County, only one significant fire came out of the storms: Hells Hill Fire, which burned 9 acres, 4 miles southeast of Marcola. 

In addition, O’Neill credited quick suppression efforts as a big reason for the relatively low fire activity thus far in Lane County. 

“It’s a matter of fortune, but we’ve also attacked fire starts in western Oregon very quickly,” he said. “The state has increased its investment in resources like more planes, helicopters, and personnel. The University of Oregon’s camera system is also a key asset, allowing us to fight fires while they’re small.”

O’Neill also pointed out that so far Lane County has largely dodged the smoke from the fires. Winds blowing north and east have pushed the smoke over Idaho and Utah, largely sparing the Willamette Valley, he said.  

This satellite loop from the National Weather Service shows westerly winds carrying wildfire smoke away from the Cascades and Lane County.

However, O’Neill warns that both wildfire and smoke risks remain, particularly if there is an east wind event — dry winds that blow from east to west. Similar winds were a key factor in the devastating 2020 Labor Day fires.

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