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Denny Hamlin
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin’s a super-elite shorter-flat track performer who’ll be tough to beat in the Richmond Cook Out 400. Hamlin’s a 5-time Richmond winner and in 15 of the last 18 races, he’s finished in the top 6. Over the last eight races minus spring 2023, Hamlin has a 2.0 average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin finished 2nd at Phoenix and then just had a major off race at Iowa (24th) which I wouldn’t read into. On Saturday night, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Richmond Track History – Denny Hamlin has thrived at Richmond, and he’s consistently performed at a super-elite level. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Average Finish (5.0) and the best Driver Rating. In terms of the results column, Hamlin’s finished in the top 4 in 7 of the last 8 and currently has three straight top 2 finishes. Last year, Hamlin nearly pulled out the broom and had a 1.5 average finish. Last summer, Hamlin won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 124 laps and then finished 2nd overall. Hamlin was leading for a microsecond in overtime but then Dillon wrecked him too! In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 2nd. Last spring, Hamlin didn’t have the best car but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. In the race, Hamlin finished 5th in Stage #2, led 17 laps, had an 8.2 average running position but take note he was on pace to finish in 3rd until the late caution came out, in which the #11 pit crew vaulted him from 3rd to the lead. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run. In summer 2023, Hamlin had a hot rod and ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 20 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Hamlin might’ve just been the best (led 71 laps), but he got two speeding penalties and had an excessively slow pit stop which led to his asterisk mark 20th. Over the four races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 4th, 1st, 2nd and 2nd.

Christopher Bell
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Christopher Bell is one of the premiere shorter-flat track performers and at Richmond, the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. The most likely driver to beat Bell is himself, which he’s more than capable of doing, courtesy of three straight Richmond races with speeding penalties. Since last year at shorter-flat tracks, Bell has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, 3-wins, the best average finish (5.3), the best average running position and the best Driver Rating by a wide margin. Bell has never won at Richmond in Cup, but he’s consistently performed at an elite level, and I think he has a great chance to change that on Saturday night.
Richmond Track History – Christopher Bell has been a fantasy ace at Richmond and in the Next Gen, Bell has the 2nd best average finish (7.3), the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking and the 4th best Driver Rating. In terms of the results column, Bell is 5 for 6 at finishing between 2nd to 6th. Last summer, Bell had a rocket and finished 6th, which you can get out an asterisk mark for. In the race, Bell won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 122 laps but then in the final Stage on lap 283 while leading (before the pit cycle), Bell was caught speeding on pit road. Being able to finish 6th with that problem and a lack of cautions is very impressive. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked #1. Last spring, Bell might’ve just been able to pull off the win, but he finished 6th. In the race, Bell started 29th, finished 6th in Stage #2, led 9 laps but then in the final Stage when he was running long during a green flag pit cycle which would’ve given him a tire advantage at the end, Bell was caught speeding on pit road. On lap 283 before that green flag pit cycle started, Bell was running in 4th. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2023, Bell started 29th, finished 20th and had a 22.1 average running position. I’ll note, on lap 133 while running in 18th, Bell got a speeding penalty, so his race wasn’t exactly incident free. In spring 2023, Bell was one of the best. In the race, Bell finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.2 average running position, led 26 laps and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Bell had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In the four races prior to that, Bell had results of 2nd, 6th, 3rd and 4th.

William Byron
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – At Richmond, look for William Byron to run well and don’t be surprised if he’s a factor. Byron’s come close to winning here twice in the Next Gen and he’s fresh off a trip to victory lane at Iowa, which is perhaps the best comp track. This year at shorter-flat tracks, nobody has been better than Byron and over the combined races, Byron has a 1.5 average speed ranking, the best Driver Rating, the best average running position (4.8) and he’s averaged leading 112 laps per race. Going back to 2024 on this sub-track type, Byron ranks 3rd for speed.
Richmond Track History – In the Next Gen, William Byron has been strong. Byron’s flirted with victory lane in 2 of the 6 races, has the 5th best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the 6th best Driver Rating and a 13.2 average finish which underrates him. Last summer, Byron was OK. In the race, Byron finished 13th, had a 12.5 average running position and ranked 14th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Byron had a solid showing. In the race, Byron had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking, a 10.5 average running position and then finished 7th overall. In summer 2023, Byron finished 21st and sadly, that’s pretty legit since he wasn’t good. In spring 2023, the #24 was fast but Byron finished a misleading 24th. In the race, Byron won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.4 average running position and led a race high 117 laps. On lap 370, Byron was the leader but then during a caution shortly after that he left pit road in 4th and was then promptly caught up in a restart wreck which led to his 24th. In terms of speed analytics, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking and the best Green Flag Speed.

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