As we move into the fall months, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average temperatures and near-normal rainfall for the Chicago area.
Typically, fall in Chicago sees a steady drop in temperatures, from an average high of 75.5 degrees Fahrenheit in September to around 48.4 degrees Fahrenheit by November.
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Rainfall remains consistent early in the season, with both September and October usually seeing over three inches of precipitation.
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By November, that amount drops slightly to about 2.5 inches.
The first signs of snow also tend to arrive in the fall — with Chicago averaging about 0.2 inches in October and 1.8 inches in November — but with warmer-than-normal temps expected, snow may once again be delayed.
NOAA defines “meteorological fall” as the period from Sept. 1 through Nov. 30.
Looking ahead to winter, defined by NOAA as Dec. 1 through Feb. 28, Chicago could see a wetter-than-normal season, with temperatures expected to remain near average.
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This winter outlook is influenced by the potential development of a La Niña pattern, which occurs when cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures are observed in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.
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La Niña shifts global weather patterns, and for the Midwest, including Chicago, it typically brings a more active jet stream over the Great Lakes. This can result in more frequent storms and above-average precipitation for the region, while much of the southern U.S. tends to remain drier than usual.
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On average, Chicago receives around 38 inches of snow each season, with January standing out as both the coldest and snowiest month.
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Highs in January generally stay in the low to mid-30s, while lows often dip into the teens and 20s.
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While near-normal temperatures are expected this winter, the influence of La Niña could still bring more snow and precipitation overall, especially if the pattern strengthens in the coming months.