The new La Liga season gets started later on Friday, with defending champions Barcelona opening at Real Mallorca tomorrow and Real Madrid welcoming Osasuna on Tuesday.

As usual, there is no shortage of storylines, including Barca again struggling to register their new signings, Madrid once more battling against La Liga’s authorities and Atletico Madrid spending big to try to challenge the Clasico duo for the title. There’s also plenty of political intrigue, controversy, figures under pressure and the possibility for history to be made on and off the pitch.

The Athletic has taken its annual stab at predicting how things will go (which will hopefully turn out better than last year, when we predicted Barcelona would sack new manager Hansi Flick by Christmas)…

Who will win La Liga and why?

Flick had a phenomenal first season in charge at Barcelona, winning the domestic treble of La Liga, Copa del Rey and Supercopa.

His squad is arguably stronger this year. Defender Inigo Martinez has left, but on-loan Marcus Rashford brings another option in attack, and most importantly, the team’s young core should be even better — centre-back Pau Cubarsi, midfielders Pedri and Gavi, and especially emerging-superstar attacker Lamine Yamal.

Can Flick’s Barca build further on last season’s success? (Judit Cartiel/Getty Images)

Madrid also look to have significantly improved, with a rebuilt defence and fresh energy and impetus under new coach Xabi Alonso. Atletico have spent a lot again to try to mount a challenge, and Diego Simeone arguably now has the deepest squad of his 14 seasons in charge. But Alonso’s impact across the capital could be hampered by minimal pre-season preparation time after going to the final four of the Club World Cup last month, while Simeone’s new signings might take a while to settle in.

So, assuming Barcelona’s annual issues with actually registering their new players are resolved, and they get to return to play at their iconic Camp Nou again from September as planned, Flick’s team should be celebrating another title in May.

Who else will qualify for the Champions League?

Barcelona, Madrid and Atletico have finished among the top four in Spain every year since 2012-13, and they will again this time. But the race for the fourth Champions League qualification spot looks wide open.

Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal are playing in that competition this season, so their domestic form could suffer as they juggle the extra eight games. That might open up an opportunity for Real Betis, who continue to make progress year on year under veteran coach Manuel Pellegrini. Betis’ top-four challenge will be especially strong if they can secure the return of Brazilian attacker Antony from Manchester United after his impressive loan spell in the second half of last season.

Mallorca could potentially challenge for a European spot, while Valencia improved tremendously after Carlos Corberan took over as coach in January.

Who will be the biggest underperformers?

One of the biggest questions is how Madrid’s Club World Cup exertions, tacked onto the end of last season, will affect how they start this new campaign.

Madrid’s players finally got to go on holiday on July 10, after losing 4-0 to Paris Saint-Germain in the semi-finals in the United States. They then returned for pre-season training on August 4, just 15 days before they welcome Osasuna to the Bernabeu for both sides’ opening La Liga fixture.

Managing that situation is a huge challenge for new coach Alonso, who also has to integrate three new defenders in Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dean Huijsen and Alvaro Carreras.

Alonso was appointed as Madrid coach back in May (Sara Gordon/Real Madrid via Getty Images)

Their games at the Club World Cup suggested that Alonso’s biggest issue will be how to fit both Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior into his XI while implementing a version of the high-energy, high-pressing style he used at previous club Bayer Leverkusen.

Midfielder Jude Bellingham will be missing until mid-October at least, following a summer operation to fix a long-running shoulder issue, and players could also still leave in the summer transfer window, including Brazilian attacker Rodrygo.

Alonso could well end up being a success at the Bernabeu – he has the experience and nous to deal with the challenge of the job – but there might be some bumps along the way, and Madrid could be playing catch-up in the 2025-26 title race from early on.

How do you expect the promoted clubs to do?

Levante, Elche and Real Oviedo would all see a 17th-place finish in the 20-club table, so avoiding an immediate return to the second tier, as success.

The three promoted clubs are working with limited finances, having spent around €10million (£8.6m; $11.7m) between them so far on new players (for comparison, the three teams promoted to the Premier League this summer have spent over €300m combined).

But they all have superb stories to follow.

Oviedo’s club captain is former Arsenal and Spain playmaker Santi Cazorla, now 40, whose fairytale return to his hometown club saw him score in last June’s emotional play-off final victory.

Levante’s players, coach and staff played a big role in providing crucial supplies and support when the team’s home city of Valencia was badly flooded last October. Elche owner Christian Bragarnik’s CV includes experience as a striker in fifth-tier Argentine football, time spent as a video-store assistant, and working as an agent to Diego Maradona.

Who will be the best young player this season?

Yamal only turned 18 in mid-July and could already be the best player in Spain, if not the world, so he’s a good candidate for this section.

But Franco Mastantuono, Madrid’s new €63million signing from River Plate in Argentina, is even younger (his 18th birthday was on Thursday) and, some say, just as talented.

Already a senior Argentina international, Mastantuono is used to dealing with pressure and expectation. He has already played 64 senior games for River, scoring 10 goals and providing seven assists. Some of those goals were spectacular, especially the tremendous free kick scored in a 2-1 derby victory against fierce local rivals Boca Juniors in April.

Many kids have arrived at Madrid with big hype and have taken a long time to settle, or just never made it at all. But people who know Mastantuono reckon he can hit the ground running and quickly rival Yamal as the hottest teenager in La Liga.

Which under-the-radar figure have the big clubs been sleeping on?

Athletic Club’s Mikel Jauregizar had a real breakout season in 2024-25 and is fast developing into one of the top defensive midfielders in La Liga. Only 18 months on from his senior debut, the super-combative and mobile 21-year-old has established himself as a key member of coach Ernesto Valverde’s team.

Jauregizar, pictured in pre-season for Athletic (Joris Verwijst/BSR Agency/Getty Images)

He is not the biggest at 177cm (5ft 10in), but Jauregizar ranked third-highest among all midfielders for tackles in La Liga last season. That ability to regain possession and then launch attackers such as brothers Inaki and Nico Williams was key to Valverde’s team’s success in finishing fourth.

Jauregizar did not help himself with his performance in Athletic Club’s biggest game of the season, being embarrassingly dribbled past by Manchester United centre-back Harry Maguire in the Europa League semi-final first leg at San Mames. But his career so far suggests he is a very quick learner, and playing in the Champions League this season should bring plenty more experience and exposure.

Which club have had the best transfer window?

For much of last season, Atletico appeared set to seriously compete on all fronts, but their season shuddered to a stop in March with a series of disappointing defeats by Barcelona and Madrid across La Liga, Copa del Rey and the Champions League.

Atletico’s subsequent summer spending of around €150million looks directly aimed at fixing issues in the squad highlighted during that tough spell. Slovakia defender David Hancko and United States international midfielder Johnny Cardoso bring more physicality, while Italian Matteo Ruggeri and Spain’s Alex Baena form an all-new left flank.

United States international Cardoso in action for Atletico in pre-season against Newcastle (Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images)

On paper, they all look like excellent acquisitions. The question now is how Simeone integrates all his new players and whether he can get them to buy quickly into his trademark super-intense style of play.

If it all clicks, Atletico’s challenge could go a lot further this season.

Which club have had the worst transfer window?

Villarreal supporters had known that Spain international Baena was set to leave, and the club banking €42million from Atletico and signing Las Palmas’ Alberto Moleiro as a replacement for €16m was not such bad business. Similarly, selling inconsistent forward Thierno Barry to Everton for €30m and getting Spain Under-21 international centre-back Rafa Marin on loan from Napoli look like smart moves.

Less easy to understand is bringing in former Arsenal midfielder Thomas Partey on a free transfer.

Partey’s experience and ability could be useful on the pitch as Villarreal return to the Champions League this season, but for many, it is just unacceptable to sign a player who has been charged with five counts of rape and one count of sexual assault in England. Partey denies the charges, and club president Fernando Roig said on Tuesday: “We respect the presumption of innocence and of course we condemn any kind of violence, inside or outside football.”

Tell us one great storyline we might have missed…

Barcelona’s issues around registering their summer signings with La Liga are eye-catching due to the size of the club and the regular drama involved, but they are far from the only ones struggling in this area ahead of the new season.

Just days before the games kick off this weekend, more than 50 new arrivals had yet to be officially registered with La Liga. Clubs still looking to make room within their budget included the three promoted clubs, as well as Sevilla, Celta Vigo, Espanyol, Getafe, Real Sociedad, Betis and Alaves.

So some well-known names are likely to watch their new team’s opening game from the stands, while a frantic couple of weeks of wheeling and dealing are likely until the end of the transfer window.

What will be making headlines as the season progresses?

La Liga president Javier Tebas has been openly trying to stage official Spanish top-flight games in the United States since 2018, but until now has always been denied by a mix of political and practical factors.

Tebas is nothing if not dogged, however, and many of the big hurdles have now been removed — including the settlement of a U.S. legal case between world football’s governing body FIFA and promoters Relevent, and improved relations with the Spanish FA in the post-Luis Rubiales era.

A plan to play late December’s Villarreal vs Barcelona fixture in Miami is now well advanced, with both clubs publicly backing the idea.

The biggest opposition domestically comes from Madrid president Florentino Perez, while green lights are still required from the European game’s rulers UEFA, Concacaf (the regional federation that includes the U.S.) and the United States Soccer Federation.

Though it’s not yet fully sorted, sooner or later, Tebas’ signature project looks certain to happen.

(Top photos of Rashford, left, and Alexander-Arnold: Getty Images)