On Friday night, the Phoenix Mercury will face off against a very different Las Vegas Aces team from the one we’ve seen for most of the season. On August 2nd, the Aces got smacked down on their own home court by the Minnesota Lynx, 111-58, and they had already lost more games than they had in 2024. It felt like rock bottom for the team that has made three trips to the Finals this decade and brought home two championship trophies.
Since that humiliating loss, the Aces have won five straight and, at 19-14, are fifth in the standings, just a game behind the Mercury in fourth. Not only will this be a big game in terms of deciding who will get home court advantage come playoff time, but it’s also a potential playoff preview. If the season ended today, these two teams would be locked into a best-of-three series to determine who moves on to the semifinals.
The regional rivals have played each other twice this year, once in each team’s city. Phoenix took the first game in Vegas, 76-70, and Vegas won in Phoenix, 84-81.
Let’s take a look at how the Aces match up with the Mercury.
Aug 3, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces guard Jewell Loyd (24) drives past Golden State Valkyries guard Kate Martin (20) in the first quarter at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images / Candice Ward-Imagn Images
The Las Vegas Offense
Vegas struggled mightily on offense at the beginning of the season, and had to rely on reigning MVP A’Ja Wilson to shoulder a huge load, as Chelsea Gray wasn’t playing like her usual self and the integration of Jewell Loyd hadn’t gone as smoothly as they had hoped. Lately, Loyd’s play in particular has perked up since her move to the bench, with two 20-point games during their win streak, both on excellent shooting nights. She’s provided a much-needed outside threat, knocking down 19 threes just in the last five games.
Wilson, of course, is the centerpiece, the sun around whom the rest of the team orbits. She leads the team with 22 points per game and is also third on the team in assists, as she has taken on a bigger role as a playmaker and offensive hub. She missed the first game against the Mercury this season, but was the difference maker in the second game, scoring 26 points while pulling down 18 boards and dishing out seven assists. Keeping her from filling up the stat sheet will be a tall task, even for a strong defensive team like Phoenix. Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack could both see time guarding her.
The Aces have just the seventh-best offense in the league this season, but have been second best over their last five. Their suddenly red-hot offense versus the Phoenix defense will be a great matchup to watch. Vegas gets fewer of their baskets off assists than any team in the league, and they get the second-lowest proportion of their points in the paint, ahead of only the Golden State Valkyries.
Aug 10, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A’ja Wilson (22) reacts during the second half of a WNBA basketball game against the Connecticut Sun at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images
The Aces defense
Wilson is also the Aces’ defensive anchor. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year and four-time blocks leader has the size and strength to lock down the low post and the balance and positioning savvy to shut down drivers and cutters. The team, though, has been a step slow on defense for much of the year and they rank in the league’s bottom five for the season (they’re in the top five over the last five games though).
Time will tell if the Aces’ recent uptick in defensive performance will last or not, but for now, Phoenix can take advantage of this matchup by pushing the pace in transition. The Aces are in the bottom three in turnover percentage over their win streak, and if the Mercury can get steals and run in transition, they could pull ahead in the season series against Las Vegas.
Aug 10, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray (12) controls the ball defended by Connecticut Sun forward Aaliyah Edwards (8) during the first half of a WNBA basketball game at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images
It’s a big game for both teams, and one that pits two teams with plenty of momentum against each other. The winner will be in the drivers’ seat for home court advantage in what could be a very good playoff matchup.
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