Explore BigBear.ai Holdings’s Fair Values from the Community and select yours
The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings, is for revenues of US$134m in 2025, which would reflect an uncomfortable 12% reduction in BigBear.ai Holdings’ sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$1.10. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$168m and losses of US$0.41 per share in 2025. Ergo, there’s been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year’s revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for BigBear.ai Holdings
NYSE:BBAI Earnings and Revenue Growth August 16th 2025
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$5.83, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 23% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.7% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining – BigBear.ai Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at BigBear.ai Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn’t be surprised if investors were a bit wary of BigBear.ai Holdings.
Story Continues
So things certainly aren’t looking great, and you should also know that we’ve spotted some potential warning signs with BigBear.ai Holdings, including major dilution from new stock issuance in the past year. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 2 other flags we’ve identified.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.