Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Aug 16, 2025, 08:30 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

A high pitch count forced Sean Burke to exit his last outing after only 3 1/3 innings. To that point, the Chicago White Sox right-handers fanned seven while issuing three walks to the Cleveland Guardians. Walks have been an issue all season, but over his last five efforts, Burke recorded 32 strikeouts in 22 innings while allowing just one home run. On Saturday, Burke has a road date with the Kansas City Royals, who sport the second-lowest walk rate in the league.
After registering a 2.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his prior 84 2/3 frames, Brayan Bello struggled against the San Diego Padres in Petco Park last weekend, yielding five runs in 5 2/3 innings. After compiling 162 1/3 innings while making 30 starts last season, Bello’s subpar effort is likely just a hiccup against a strong offense as opposed to hitting a wall. Look for a rebound at home when the Boston Red Sox square off against a pesky Miami Marlins club.
The New York Mets are calling up Nolan McLean to make his major league debut at home against the Seattle Mariners. It’s unclear if this is a spot start, but with Frankie Montas and Paul Blackburn ticketed for the bullpen, a strong showing could earn McLean more starts down the stretch. The 24-year-old righty tossed 87 1/3 innings with Triple-A Syracuse, punching out 97 while issuing a slightly high, but palatable 38 walks. He has the luxury of working in one of the most favorable pitching venues in the league while facing a sputtering offense. Over the past month, the Mariners have struck out at the fourth-highest clip facing right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

Quinn Priester has been a revelation this season, for both the Milwaukee Brewers and his fantasy team managers. However, there are a few yellow flags. He’s just three innings shy from his combined major and minor league total from last season, and his velocity in two August starts is down half a tick. Over his last three outings, Priester’s ERA is 4.76 with a 1.47 WHIP, including just nine strikeouts in those 17 stanzas. Next up is an NL Central matchup in the Great American Ballpark with an inconsistent, but potentially dangerous Cincinnati Reds lineup.

Saturday’s best matchups for pitchers

Saturday’s worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on SaturdaySaturday’s best matchups for hitters

Saturday’s worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today’s top home run prop bets

Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.64 EV
One reason to bet this: Ozuna’s 46.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle over the past week (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.26 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the fifth-strongest of the day for bats.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+350)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.53 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero Jr.s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise over the past seven days, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 101.3-mph recently.

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Zebby Matthews | UNDER 5.5 K (-100)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.66 EV
One reason to bet this: Target Field is projected as the 10th-worst venue in MLB for strikeouts.

Bryan Woo | UNDER 5.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.89 EV
One reason to bet this: The New York Mets have six hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Woo in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

Max Fried | OVER 5.5 K (+120)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.92 EV
One reason to bet this: The St. Louis Cardinals have four bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages, Victor Scott II, Nolan Gorman).

Today’s Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Rangers @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of RUN with a $11.08 EV

Braves @ Guardians | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $2.69 EV

Pirates @ Cubs | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $1.95 EV

Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

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