NEW YORK – Erin, which became the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, rapidly intensified over the weekend, going from a Category 1 hurricane to a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph in a matter of hours.
Now a Category 4 storm, it’s not expected to make landfall on the East Coast, but it still poses many threats to beachgoers in New Jersey, New York and Long Island.
Here’s a look at what the NYC area can expect, a timeline, a tracker and which areas face the biggest threats:
Local perspective:
On its current track, Erin is expected to run parallel along the Eastern Seaboard, meaning it’s not expected to make a landfall, according to FOX 5 NY‘s Audrey Puente and FOX Weather models.
However, we’ll still feel its impacts, as life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents are forecast to threaten the area all week.
What to expect
- Increasing wave heights, as high as 15 to 20 feet
- Dangerous rip currents
- Wind gusts up to 30 mph possible
- Minor coast flooding is also possible
These rip currents pose real dangers to swimmers. Earlier this month, one person died and six were rescued from rip currents in Seaside Heights. In nearby Berkeley Township this weekend, two swimmers were rescued after getting caught in rip currents. Also on Friday, a 13-year-old girl drowned in Belmar, New Jersey, though the cause of death remains under investigation.
Tracking Hurricane Erin in the Atlantic. (FOX Weather)
As of Monday afternoon, the storm was in the Caribbean, headed toward the southeast Bahamas. It is projected to move north later this week.
Hurricane Erin forecast cone. (FOX Weather)
Timeline:
Here’s a look at what to expect this week.
Monday
A beach hazards statement is in effect along the Jersey coast, with waves 3 to 5 feet high, rough surf conditions and the risk of rip current. Monmouth County is under a rip current statement through Wednesday.
“Life-threatening rip currents are likely for all people entering the surf zone. Anyone visiting the beaches should stay out of the surf,” the National Weather Service advises.
Tuesday
The National Weather Service issued a high rip current risk statement, which goes into effect Tuesday evening for Long Island and New York City.
Coastal hazards expected through this week. (FOX Weather)
Wednesday
Rip current risk statements for New York and New Jersey remain in effect.
Thursday and Friday
Longer term, life-threatening surf and rip currents will reach their peak on Thursday and Friday.
Wave heights will reach their peak and could be as tall as 15 to 20 feet.
Big picture view:
Hurricane Erin is expected to cause extreme damage to the Outer Banks in North Carolina, forcing evacuations. Severe inland flooding is anticipated, with homes and businesses at risk of structural damage, numerous roads likely becoming impassable, and vehicles potentially submerged under several feet of water.
In this image taken from the North Carolina Department of Transportation camera, cars are lined up to evacuate via ferry from Ocracoke Island to Hatteras Island, N.C., Monday, Aug. 18, 2025, due to the expected impact of Hurricane Erin. (North Caroli
Erin is forecast to remain a Category 2 or 3 storm as it passes offshore, with winds up to 60 mph and waves reaching 20 feet, exacerbating ongoing beach erosion and rising sea levels in the Outer Banks.
Already, the hurricane pelted the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas,
More storm threats
What’s next:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified a tropical system with a medium chance of development in the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region, potentially forming into a tropical depression later in the week.
Area to watch for tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region.(FOX Weather)
A large group of disorganized thunderstorms off the coast of Africa is moving westward, encountering favorable conditions for development as it approaches the Caribbean islands, possibly nearing the Leeward Islands by Friday.
The next named storm in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand.
The Source: This article uses information from FOX 5 NY meteorologist Audrey Puente, the National Weather Service, FOX Weather and the Associated Press.