If you could sum up the U.S. economic picture for the first half of 2025 in one word, it might be “uncertainty.”

But while some sectors of the business world are seeing a pullback because of uncertainty, Alabama’s economic picture continues to show growth.

That was the consensus of the voices gathered Tuesday for an economic outlook summit by Regions Financial in Huntsville.

Regions’ Chief Economist Richard Moody, Chief Investment Officer Alan McKnight and Sean Kelly, the commercial banking leader and executive for the Huntsville market, gave their thoughts on the current picture as we head into the fall.

Why “uncertainty?”

Consumer spending and employment continue to show a resilient economy, but inflation is stubbornly holding on.

Couple that with a cloudy picture provided by tariffs, and it’s difficult to size up corporate and consumer behavior.

Let’s look at Alabama first.

McKnight said Alabama is not seeing some of the corporate pullback apparent in other parts of the U.S. For example, motor manufacturing, aircraft and shipbuilding are sectors that have remained resilient.

And, as Moody noted, Huntsville has become a low-cost alternative to other Southern metros, such as Nashville, Atlanta and Charlotte. \

That has made the Rocket City not as reliant on government contracts. A highly skilled work force and lower costs of living are still attractive propositions.

“The vibrant domestic migration really slowed in Atlanta, and we did not see that here,” Moody said. “We actually saw it increase a little bit.”

And while there may be some measure of uncertainty nationally, businesses are continuing to invest locally, Kelly said.

In fact, Moody said, uncertainty may not leave as big a mark as some anticipated earlier in the year.

Back in January, economists were projecting about 2% growth for year, after several years of 3% to 4%, with inflation holding on.

Several expected the Trump Administration to tackle tax and spending issues, relax some regulations and then enact the tariffs that President Trump heralded during the campaign.

“It kind of ended up being the reverse,” Moody said.

Economists also didn’t anticipate the scale of the Trump Administration’s decision to impose a wide-ranging schedule of tariffs on a host of nations at the same time, then pull some of them back, while imposing still more, which clouded the forecasts.

Yet the pace of layoffs hasn’t quickened, and the tariffs haven’t yet been reflected to a large scale in prices.

So, after all that, 2% growth still feels accurate.

“It hasn’t played out exactly as we thought but we still think we’ll end up in very much the same place (at the end of the year),” Moody said.

But there’s still enough uncertainty to go around. Take yesterday’s earnings call with The Home Depot.

The home-improvement retailer previously said it wouldn’t raise prices as a result of tariffs, but announced there would be some increases on products.

As for what it’s seeing, the company said consumers aren’t canceling big home-improvement projects as much as deferring them, according to The Wall Street Journal.

McKnight said one factor to watch through the rest of the year is how much cost related to tariffs retailers are willing to pass on to customers. Moody agreed.

“We don’t expect them to keep taking that hit,” he said. “Yeah, the economy has remained resilient, but we have yet to see the full impact of higher tariffs.”

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