The weight of expectations can crush even the most talented freshmen. AJ Dybantsa knows this better than most as he prepares for his debut season at BYU. The consensus five-star recruit has all the tools to dominate college basketball, but one misstep could derail everything he’s worked toward.
Can AJ Dybantsa Avoid the Ace Bailey Trap at BYU?
Consensus five-star freshman basketball players walk into the locker room and onto the court, ordained to become game-changers who truly want to elevate their team’s performance and potentially raise their NBA draft profile. In an era of “one and done” freshmen, players can jump to the NBA after just a year in college. Yet, avoiding on-court miscues could ultimately benefit them at the next level.
Brigham Young University landed the Brockton, Massachusetts, small forward. Dybantsa was reclassified so that he will take the court in Provo this winter. While scouts and analysts marvel at his game, displaying apparent precocity on the floor, the six-foot-nine prep standout must avoid the pitfalls that struck others in his position.
College basketball analyst John Fanta, host of “The Field Of 68: After Dark” YouTube channel, discussed the Cougars’ potential standout and what could go wrong.
“But what you don’t want to have happen, in my opinion, is for him to be better than him. Yeah. But from the offensive side, you don’t want an Ace Bailey type of thing where they’re going to take, he’s got to take his shots. He’s got to go; he’s going to go out and have 38 against Delaware, right? But, I don’t care about 38. I care about how you impact winning on both ends of the floor so that this team will consistently be strong.”
Why Did Ace Bailey’s Approach Fail at Rutgers?
Fanta refers to Airious “Ace” Bailey, formerly of Rutgers, now playing with the Utah Jazz. During the 2024-25 season as a five-star freshman recruit at Rutgers, Bailey averaged 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game. However, his offensive prowess did not help Rutgers win. Their 15-17 record with Bailey matched their exact mark from the year before.
The numbers tell an even more troubling story. According to Basketball Reference, Bailey sported a plus/minus of 4.5. The Scarlet Knights only scored four more points with him on the floor than off. In contrast, Cooper Flagg, formerly of Duke, picked four spots ahead of Bailey, sported a plus/minus of 16.3, and led all of Division 1.
Fanta sees Dybantsa as a player who gets his points and makes his teammates better. Dybantsa could and probably will lead his team to an NCAA Tournament appearance, which Bailey could not do. Granted, coaches want superstar players to score first and worry about everything else later. However, getting his teammates involved early and often while posting good numbers will foster the team’s unselfishness.
What will BYU look like during the 2024-25 season with Dybantsa presumably acting as its star? The answer may determine whether he follows Bailey’s path or carves out something much better.