October 2025 WTI NYMEX futures moved into the prompt month this week as September settled. Prices are trading above the 8-, 13- and 20-day Moving Averages. Volume is below the recent average at 130,000. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), a momentum indicator, is in neutral territory at 51.
Resistance is now pegged at $63.85 (8-day MA) while near-term critical Support is $63.25 (13-day MA). The very small price range Friday sets the stage for a breakout to either side. Such a move will do so with good momentum given the market indecision currently.
Looking ahead
Early statements from India indicate they will not bow to the new Trump tariffs and believe they have the right to purchase oil from anyone. Traders will have to monitor that situation to see how much resilience India has.
As we enter September, two major fundamental factors will emerge. First, Labor Day in the US signals the end of the summer driving season. Secondly, the OPEC+ group output will have to be closely watched to see if they can actually deliver that large of an increase. Further, all markets will be awaiting a firm announcement by the Fed of a rate decrease next month.
The National Hurricane Center is watching a new tropical system emerging from West Africa. Invest 99L is expected to develop further by mid-week next week. We are entering the peak period of the hurricane season which has been quiet for the most part so far.
Natural gas, fundamental analysis
Despite some support this week, October Henry Hub NYMEX Natural Gas Futures have been in a steady 2-month downtrend. A below-forecasted storage injection helped boost prices this week but this summer has not experienced the more prolonged heat spells of the recent past. And production continues to grow.
The week’s High was $2.99/MMbtu on Thursday with the week’s Low of $2.74 on Monday. Supply last week was +0.1 bcfd to 112.7 bcfd vs. 112.6 bcfd the prior week. Demand was -2.7 bcfd to 102.5 bcfd vs. 106.2 bcfd the week prior, with the biggest decrease in the Power sector.
Exports to Mexico were 7.3 bcfd vs. 7.4 the prior week. LNG exports were back up to 16.4 bcf vs. 15.5 bcfd the prior week.
Dutch TTF prices have fallen to $9.35/MMbtu equivalent while Asia’s JKM was quoted at $11.22/MMbtu. The EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report indicated an injection of 18 bcf, below the forecasted +28 bcf and the 5-year average of +38 Bcf. Total gas in storage is now 3.217 tcf, dipping to 3.4% below last year and to 5.0% above the 5-year average.
Theoretically, there are just 8 weeks left in the injection season. To achieve a season-ending volume of 3.9 tcf, injections would have to average 85 bcf per week and +97 bcf to hit 4.0 tcf.
Natural gas, technical analysis