The state pension is looking more unsustainable every day. High inflation — one of the three measures used to decide how much it will increase by each year — has helped the tax bill for the state pension soar to £138 billion in 2024-25. If it continues to increase with the triple lock, it is predicted that the state pension will cost us about 50 per cent more by the early 2070s.
The guarantee is far too generous. Meanwhile, increases to life expectancy and falling birth rates are exacerbating the situation. This is an issue felt worldwide. We have a huge problem on our hands, the difference is that, unlike Britain, Europe is starting to take the state pension crisis seriously.
In Germany, it was announced last week that children will get €10 a month paid into a pension, which they can access when they reach the German state pension age of 67. The scheme, which will begin in January next year, will mean all children between 6 and 17 get a Frühstart-Rente (or early-start pension) fund. When the child turns 18, the government will stop contributing to the account, but account holders can continue to make payments of €10 a month if they wish to do so.
According to Sparkasse, a group of government-backed savings banks, a child who receives the €10 for the full 11 years could see the fund grow to about €107,000 euros by the time they retire (on the assumption that the German stock index, DAX, continues its annual average returns of 8 per cent). This will be in addition to the German state pension.
• ‘Save the state pension — by taking it away from the under-75s’
On Tuesday Sweden also made key changes to its state pension. Unlike the triple lock, under which the state pension rises by the highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5 per cent, the country has been using a “brake” system, where the state pension has been reduced during years of economic difficulty. This is to prevent the system from becoming unsustainable — the brake was first used in 2010 after the financial crisis.
As a result, the state pension system is now sitting on a huge surplus and so the Swedish government has decided to introduce an “accelerator pedal” element from January 2027, where pensioners will see a rise in their state pension during good financial times. The thought is that this system will see pensioners slightly better off while making sure the system remains sustainable. This is poles apart from our state pension triple lock, which leads to big increases when inflation is high — often when the economy is in the doldrums.
Elsewhere this summer, Danish politicians took the unpopular decision to raise the state pension age to 70 by 2040 to reflect the increase in life expectancy. It is now 67 but will rise to 68 in 2030 and to 69 in 2035. Anyone born after December 31, 1970, will have to wait until 70 before they get the state pension.
• Why the rise of the one-child family is bad news for your pension
On the opposite end of the spectrum, France continues to ignore the state pension problem. Its government is teetering on the brink of collapse partly because of its generous state pension system. France spends more than 14 per cent of its GDP on public pensions — above almost every other nation in Europe.
Its net replacement rate — a measure of how effectively retirement income replaces prior earnings — is 74 per cent, and it is being paid out from the age of 62, although Emmanuel Macron has recently pushed through pension reforms that will see this increase to 64. The reforms have been met by uproar from the French public despite the new state pension age being one of Europe’s lowest.
France faces a £2.85 trillion debt bill and Éric Lombard, the minister of economics and finance, issued a stark warning on Tuesday that the International Monetary Fund might have to bail the country out. This is not where we want to be heading.
We are growing older and not giving birth to enough future taxpayers. The state pension is a ticking timebomb. If we ignore it for much longer, it is likely to cost the next generation dearly.