Quantum computers, ironclad mobile reception… DB’s digital director breaks down how new technology will shape Germany’s rail network in 20 years’ time, particularly how it could help boost the operator’s abysmal punctuality record.

Delays, broken switches, patchy Wi-Fi and a mounting backlog of repairs; these present-day issues are what have kept Deutsche Bahn (DB) in the rail headlines of late. Yet Daniela Gerd tom Markotten, DB’s Member of the Management Board for Digitalisation and Technology, insists some of this criticism is overstated, and stresses that the digital revolution is coming fast for Germany’s rails.

In an interview with German tech magazine t3n on what DB may look like in 2045, she sketched a future where artificial intelligence, satellite imaging and quantum computing make the railway far more punctual and resilient.

Punctuality targets

Asked whether DB trains would finally run on time in two decades, Markotten referred to the operator’s ongoing S3 renovation programme. She said the near-term goal is to lift long-distance punctuality to 75–80% by the end of 2027. That would mark a significant improvement from this July, when punctuality stood at just 56.1%. However, it remains far below the 90% punctuality rate that passenger associations and federal politicians have long argued is necessary for rail to be considered competitive.

Still, she argued that AI is already delivering results. “AI alerts dispatchers to potential conflicts early on and, in the event of schedule deviations, makes suggestions on how to keep train traffic as smooth as possible and minimise delays. This rollout is already underway,” Markotten said.

Daniela Gerd tom Markotten, DB’s Member of the Management Board for Digitalisation and Technology looks into the future. © Sebastian Berger/DB AG

She added that predictive maintenance powered by data analytics would make a difference too: “I’m convinced that we’ll be even more punctual in 20 years because we’ll be able to maintain trains much more proactively and manage traffic more intelligently.”

Connectivity promises

One area where DB’s reputation has been particularly poor is connectivity on board. So what does 2045 hold for on-board internet? Markotten firstly defended the operator, claiming internet and mobile connections are “often significantly better than their reputation suggests.” However, she still recommended passengers use their own smartphones rather than shared on-board Wi-Fi, where bandwidth is limited due to the number of users.

Already by the early 2030s, Markotten expects each train to have a total available bandwidth of around five gigabits per second. That figure refers to the combined capacity shared among all passengers on board, not the speed of an individual connection. The capacity will rely on next-generation mobile networks such as 5G and its successors, but also on denser trackside antenna coverage, upgraded on-train repeaters, and new mobile-permeable windows that allow signals to pass through carriage glass more easily.

Meanwhile, on routes with weak coverage, DB is working with all four German mobile providers to test compact radio masts installed every kilometre along a pilot line in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

Enter quantum

Looking further ahead, Markotten placed this connectivity in the wider context of digitalisation. She argued that only quantum computing would enable the railway to deliver on its vision of seamless operations.

“Our customers [will be able to] surf, work, and make phone calls anywhere, without interruption and at high speed,” she told t3n. “The infrastructure, trains, and underlying processes are fully digitalised. This allows us to optimally distribute trains along the route and adjust the timetable in real time in the event of disruptions.”

“However, this requires powerful quantum computers,” she added. “Optimal route planning in real time for all possible connections is not feasible with conventional computers, today’s computing power, and at high speed.”

It’s important to point out that while Markotten was being given room to speculate, quantum technology is still in its infancy. Today’s machines have only a few hundred qubits, are prone to errors, and are mainly accessible through research partnerships with providers like IBM and Google. They are also astronomically expensive: full-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers are expected to cost several hundred million to over a billion euros per installation in their early decades, according to industry estimates. Analysts suggest practical large-scale applications remain at least a decade away, so even a 2045 deployment in rail operations would still be at the very forefront of commercial use.

Fragility remains

Still, rail hypotheticals are always fun to discuss. But can technology really solve all of the railway’s problems? Markotten admits that there are limits, and the basics of rail will always remain, to a certain extent, fragile. That, for now, means a focus on modernisation.

“If a switch breaks or a signal fails, even the best technology will only help us to a limited extent,” she said. “Such disruptions demonstrate how vulnerable the system still is – and how much we need both: functioning systems and digital support.”

“If we want to achieve the climate transition, we need to get even more traffic onto the railways. To do this, we need more capacity. This means running more trains on the same route without overloading the network. This will only be possible if the tracks and vehicles become more digital.”

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