The Toronto Blue Jays are entangled in a tense pennant race. A postseason spot appears a near certainty with 22 games to play, as Toronto’s playoff odds rest over 99 percent. But the American League East division title, a potential bye and playoff seeding remain up for grabs.
The Jays are weeks away from an October return, and a busy offseason looms on the horizon. So let’s get to your stretch-run mailbag questions, some of which have been edited for length and clarity.
Do the Jays let one of their non-playoff starters close October games? — Kyle N.
Which Jays starter is most likely to earn a postseason save? — Matthew W.
Grouped these two questions together, as they hit on the same general idea.
It’s pretty clear, given recent rotation shuffling and second-half performance, Toronto’s preferred playoff rotation will likely feature Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer, with a fourth added for a potential Division Series.
That leaves two of Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Eric Lauer (who’s already back in the bullpen) to contribute in relief. Perhaps those converted starters will act in piggyback roles or handle long relief, but it’s hard to see any tagged for late innings in close games. All three post average fastball velocities under 93 mph and hold well below average whiff rates — two keys to high-leverage success.
The starters most built to step into a playoff save situation, whether it be on a throw day between starts or as the messiness of October wears on, are Scherzer and Gausman. Both have five postseason relief appearances in their careers, and Gausman’s two-pitch mix would seemingly play up in a relief role, with added velocity on his fastball. But Scherzer and Gausman are too valuable as starters to push them into regular relief roles. If the Jays are going to win deep into the postseason, they’ll need the real relievers to lock down games.
What have been the underlying issues with this Blue Jays relief group, and how can they address it? — Veronica C.
Since Aug. 1, Toronto’s bullpen owns the worst walk rate in baseball (12.8 percent). The group’s homer, strikeout and soft-contact rates all rest top-10 in the same stretch. There are still instances when home runs and extra-base hits lead to blown saves, but those arise for even the best bullpens. More than anything, the free passes are Toronto’s glaring problem — it’s those walks and uncompetitive pitches that turn one-run innings into big blowups.
Some bullpens just live with walks, balancing it out with significant swing-and-miss. But before August, Toronto’s relief group posted an 8.1 percent walk rate, 12th lowest in MLB. When Toronto’s bullpen provided seven walkless innings Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds, the Jays won. The bullpen allowed just one walk in three innings Wednesday, though the Jays still needed five relievers to lock down the contest. There are signs of returning control, and honing the bullpen’s collective command likely comes down to a combination of rest and mechanics. The Jays are in the midst of addressing both.
We’ve seen Toronto rotate through depth relievers in recent weeks, promoting five pitchers in the last 12 days. With fresh substitutes and an extra arm because of September call-ups, the Jays can balance workloads down the stretch. But, as they’re stuck in a late-season pennant race, it’s still the top options who will come in to close games. Those are the pitchers who must find the zone again.
That’s where mechanical and mindset tweaks come in. Jeff Hoffman is tinkering behind the scenes and said much of the bullpen is working on similar adjustments. We’ve seen Louis Varland turn to secondary pitches and Brendon Little lean more on his sinker. It’s hard to build up real rest or make significant changes this late in the season, but the Jays are searching for bullpen solutions.
Who is more likely to re-sign in Toronto, Shane Bieber or Bo Bichette? — Kyle N.
The Jays openly expressed interest in bringing back both players next year, but Bichette seems more likely at this point. More than anything in free agency, money wins. But looking at potential tiebreakers, the Jays are well positioned to win those with Bichette.
He’s been a Blue Jay his entire career, he’d be their regular shortstop (at least for the next few years), and Bichette regularly discusses wanting to win with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with whom he rose through the minors.
The Jays just don’t have the same history with Bieber. He also has significant West Coast connections that could make other destinations appealing. Bieber was born and went to school in California, lives in Arizona during the offseason and spent much of his rehab time in the Grand Canyon State this year at the Cleveland Guardians’ spring training facility in Goodyear, Ariz.
That’s not to say Bieber wouldn’t extend with the Jays. The righty praised Toronto’s facilities when he arrived via trade, and the Jays still have a month to show the starter the organization’s winning potential. Plus, the Jays will need a top starter this winter, and Bieber’s flashed that form in early big-league outings. But with Bichette’s lengthy history in Toronto, the shortstop’s return appears more likely.
Who are the top free-agent candidates (outside of Bichette) for the Jays this offseason? — Yossi R.
Bichette’s free agency will be the story of Toronto’s offseason until he signs. But the club’s biggest need is starting pitching. Bieber (player option), Scherzer and Bassitt are all set to hit the open market. Alek Manoah, Trey Yesavage, Bowden Francis and injury returnees such as Ricky Tiedemann and Jake Bloss could fill a couple of spots or provide needed depth. But the Jays will be involved in the rotation market, as well.
One positive for Toronto is the depth of pitching likely available in this year’s free-agent class — it’s the clear strength of the market. A reunion with Bieber would fill a hole, but other top options for the Jays include San Diego Padres righties Dylan Cease and Michael King, along with Texas Rangers righties Tyler Mahle and Merrill Kelly. Though Cease struggled this year, he has Cy Young upside. His inning-hauling durability fits the Jays’ big-ticket pitching signing trend, too.
If Anthony Santander, seen here in May, isn’t slugging in his rehab games, the Blue Jays can stay with their current hitting group. (Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)
In what world does Anthony Santander return to the lineup, even if totally healthy? — Sportsfan F.
Santander nears a rehab stint, potentially starting games early next week. Assuming his shoulder is fully recovered, it all comes down to productivity. With the Triple-A season wrapping up in three weeks, the Jays can be somewhat patient. Santander could get up to 10 minor-league games to lock in and prove at least one of his swings is ready for big-league pitching. If he does, there’s no reason the switch hitter shouldn’t be a lineup regular in the final weeks and into October.
Santander’s return would take time away from breakout players such as Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider. It could also force George Springer back to the field more often. But Santander hit 44 homers in 2024 and owns a .795 OPS over the last three seasons. Even with Toronto’s offensive success this year, that would be the fifth-best OPS of any regular hitter. If Santander isn’t slugging in his rehab games, the Jays can stay with the current hitting group. But if he proves healthy and the timing returns in a lengthy rehab stint, Santander is a lineup-changing force — the Jays will need to find a way to fit that in.
Why are we so bad at pitching development? — John M.
Minor-league pitching development was one of Toronto’s biggest struggles in the last half-decade. Manoah is basically the only homegrown regular starter to jump out of the Jays’ system in the last four years.
But with new hires and a tweaked developmental approach in the last year or so, 2025 has been different. This year, the Jays are undeniably seeing success. On top of 2024 second-rounder Khal Stephen, who was flipped to Cleveland for Bieber, Yesavage, Johnny King and Gage Stanifer all took huge jumps this year. Even the next layer of pitching prospects, such as Fernando Perez, Silvano Hechavarria and Austin Cates, have put together durable and productive seasons.
The key is to turn those minor-league success stories into big-league starters. The final, and most difficult, jump is all that really matters. As the Jays’ veteran rotation begins to turn over, producing cheap and durable pitching will be a key to sustainable success.
(Top photo of Shane Bieber: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)