The financial fallout from federal trade policy in Washington state is beginning to come into focus.
A new report from the state’s nonpartisan Office of Financial Management predicts broad hits to state revenue, jobs, and consumer prices by 2029 if the full tariff regime President Donald Trump announced on “Liberation Day” takes effect.
As tariff policy is a moving target for financial forecasters, the report also includes a model based on tariff policies in place on Aug. 7, assuming those rates hold long-term.
“It’ll result in significantly higher costs for Washington families, the loss of tens of thousands of jobs, and billions of dollars lost in state revenue,” said Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson, speaking Thursday at the Northwest Harvest’s Seattle Food Bank.
The report estimates grocery costs will rise more than 16% cumulatively in the next two years if the Liberation Day tariffs remain in effect.
“If you spend $200 a week on your groceries, you’ll be spending an extra $128 per month on those groceries as a result of these tariffs,” Ferguson said.
The report projects price increases in apparel, cars, and natural gas prices as well.
Forecasters also predict Washington could lose more than 30,000 jobs by 2029 under the full tariff regime, with sectors like agriculture and aerospace taking the brunt of the losses.
In a statement issued during Ferguson’s press conference, Washington GOP Chair Jim Walsh accused the governor of attempting to distract from criticism over the state budget.
“In a few days, our state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will issue its regular quarterly reports,” Walsh said in the statement. “If these new reports are anything like last quarter’s reports, they will show a continued slowing in Washington’s economic growth and a decline in tax revenues to Olympia. Any such declines will likely create a negative ending fund balance for the state government’s Operating Budget. By state law, that’s not allowed. The budget crisis will be Bob Ferguson’s fault. Not Donald Trump’s.”
Ferguson dismissed the statement as bluster.
“ We need to engage in reality,” he said. “And reality is what these numbers say. We’ll be taking steps through the budget process to do what we can do to mitigate these harms, to anticipate loss to general fund revenues, and welcome anyone who wants to be constructive in that effort.”