The final Avalanche Mailbag of the 2025 offseason is already getting a head start on questions regarding the trade deadline and deals that can’t be signed until next summer.
In the first half of the responses, I answered questions about the next trade target, a possible Samuel Girard trade scenario, and the next contracts for Martin Necas and Cale Makar.
Question from Reece
I know this is very early since the trade deadline is far away, but who would you love to see the Avs trade for to bolster the lineup?
Aarif’s Response
The trade deadline will be on March 6 this season. This was confirmed late last week.
Honestly, I’d like to see the Avs fill a key role in the lineup with someone who can be around for a while. Rentals are great and all, but if, for example, they go out looking for a big defenseman to play on the second pair, I’d like it to not be a pending UFA that walks at the end of the year. I’d like them to find the next Josh Manson. Someone who is either under contract or they have a legitimate shot to re-sign at the end of the year.
As for who that is? It’s hard to say right now. Players become available when a team’s season tanks. Nobody thought 12 months ago that Brad Marchand would be dealt. I’d even bet Brock Nelson wouldn’t have been available if the Islanders were in a wildcard spot. In 2023, the Blues traded Ryan O’Reilly because their season went terribly. I never thought he’d leave St. Louis.
Who becomes available is anybody’s guess. We’ll have to see how the early part of the season unfolds to determine who could be interested in selling off some pieces. There could be an intriguing defenseman or two on the market pretty early on.
Question from Eric
Could a Samuel Girard trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins fetch a return of Ryan Graves to the Colorado Avalanche?
Aarif’s Response
It can. But that’s a terrible trade for the Avs. Girard is a 21+ minute defenseman with respectable numbers both offensively and analytically. Graves has been a net negative defenseman for the Pens in two years and makes $4.5 million for four more seasons. I’d stay far away.
As for a possible Girard trade, I’d like to see the Avs leverage him to get someone younger if they decide to move him. I’ll throw out an easy trade proposal just for fun. It might need some extra pieces for it to make sense for both sides.
What if the Red Wings retained on J.T. Compher and added Albert Johansson in a deal for Girard? The Wings get much-needed left-shot help at the top of their lineup, while the Avs get a younger steady blueliner in 24-year-old Johansson, who is basically a left-shot version of Malinski (with a little less offensive upside). And they get Compher for less than the $5.1 million he’s making to play 3C.
I’d wait a few weeks to make sure Compher’s career hasn’t completely tanked like Graves before making a trade like this. But if Girard were to be traded to open up that 2LD role for a bigger defenseman, this is the type of move I’d like to see. Johansson is a stable third-pair guy making $1.125 million for two years and is a restricted free agent afterward with team control. Compher is a known player and can fill that role on the third line and eventually the fourth line for the three seasons he has left on his deal.
Questions from Spencer & Jeffrey Anderson
1. Martin Necas hasn’t re-signed. Give us your gut – is he here long term or traded? Don’t beat around the bush.
2. How important is it that Chris MacFarland gets Necas contract extended before the start of the regular season? What’s the probability of that happening?
Aarif’s Response
I figured I’d lump these together because they’re pretty similar. I’d say it’s a low probability that Necas signs before the season begins. And I only say this because Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Adrian Kempe, and Kyle Connor all have not signed deals yet either.
We’re at a weird place with contracts right now where it feels like everyone is waiting to see what the market is with other deals. Nobody wants to be the first to sign.
For example, if Kempe were to sign an eight-year, $9 million AAV deal tomorrow, and then Necas signs next week for $10.5 million per season, it’s going to look bad for Kempe. Necas would have reset the market for that caliber of player a week after he locked up a long-term deal for under the new market value.
I’m not sure when the needle starts to move with some of these players, but I don’t think it’ll happen before opening night in four weeks.
McDavid is a special case, obviously. But Kaprizov and Eichel are both similar-ish level players. And Connor might be up there too. It’s going to be a fascinating 10 months from now until July 2026.
As for my guy feeling? I bet he stays. I really do. And I think his contract is going to be close to what the Dallas Stars are paying Mikko Rantanen.
I’m starting to believe more and more that the Avalanche’s front office didn’t know what the cap would look like when they traded Rantanen to not be top-heavy. Now they’re going to have to sign Necas for almost the same amount of money as what they might’ve been able to get Rantanen for.
It is what it is, but I don’t want them to trade Necas for a package of pieces or anything less just because they want to double down on a previous mistake. Necas is a great player and will find his way on this team. I truly believe that.
Question from Clyde
When does Cale Makar sign his extension?
Aarif’s Response
As you know, he can’t sign it until July 1, 2026. I’m sure he’ll want eight years and a lot of bonus money, so I’d suspect it’s signed before Sept. 16, 2026. Maybe mid-to-late July after free agency is over and done with, at the latest? I can’t imagine the Avs want it to drag too close to that deadline. They’ll want him for eight years too so there is a lot of motivation on both sides to get this deal done before the new CBA kicks in.
I can honestly see this being a July 1 signing. The Avs locked up Parker Kelly on July 1 this year, a year before his contract expired. That tells me they’re more than willing to get ahead for pending UFA’s.
Obviously Kelly is nowhere near the player Makar is, but the Avs’ superstar defenseman strikes me as the type of guy who would want to get a deal done as soon as possible. We have history to back that up.
