NH’s Business: “Headwinds Hit the New Hampshire Economy”
EXTENDED FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO NEW HAMPSHIRE’S BUSINESS. I’M FRED KOCHER. THE TITLE IS HEADWINDS HIT THE NEW HAMPSHIRE ECONOMY. THAT’S THE TITLE OF AN ARTICLE JUST WRITTEN BY MY GUEST WHO SAYS THAT JOB GROWTH IN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS STALLED. SO WHAT ARE THOSE HEADWINDS AND WHAT’S DRIVING THEM? THE PERSON WHO WROTE THE ARTICLE IS PHIL SLETTEN, RESEARCH DIRECTOR AT THE NEW HAMPSHIRE FISCAL POLICY INSTITUTE, BASED IN CONCORD, WHERE THEY SCAN THE HORIZON AND DIG INTO THE DETAILS OF ALMOST ANYTHING AFFECTING NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FISCAL AND ECONOMIC HEALTH. SO PHIL, WELCOME. NICE TO HAVE YOU HERE. THANK YOU. IT’S GREAT TO BE HERE. YOU SAY THE ECONOMY HAS HIT NEW HAMPSHIRE. ECONOMY HAS HIT AN INFLECTION POINT. WHAT DO YOU MEAN? IT MEANS THAT THE DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY IS CHANGING. THE DATA THAT WE HAVE SO FAR IN 2025 SUGGESTS THAT THE GROWTH TRAJECTORY THAT WE HAD GOING INTO THIS YEAR APPEARS TO BE IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING. WE DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH IT’S GOING TO SLOW, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT’S CHANGING. OKAY. NOW THE CRUX OF THE ARTICLE YOU’VE WRITTEN IS IN THIS FIRST GRAPH THAT WE’RE GOING TO PUT UP ON THE SCREEN, IT SHOWS WHERE THE JOBS ARE GROWING AND WHERE THEY’RE NOT. THE GRAPH SHOWS THE JOB TRENDS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS BY INDUSTRY LISTED ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE GRAPH, SOME OF WHICH HAVE LED IN PART TO THE CURRENT HEADWINDS. THE GREEN BARS ON THE LEFT SHOW THE MOST JOB GROWTH WITH HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SHOWING THE MOST, AND THE ORANGE BARS ON THE RIGHT SHOW THE LEAST JOB GROWTH. WITH NEW HAMPSHIRE’S IMPORTANT MANUFACTURING SECTOR SHOWING THE LEAST, YOU CAN SEE THE OTHER SECTORS LISTED. AND BY THE WAY, HOUSING IN MIND. WITH THAT IN MIND, I NOTE THAT CONSTRUCTION JOBS ARE UP. PHIL, WHAT’S DRIVING THE JOB MARKET THAT WE’RE SEEING IN THIS GRAPH? SO IT’S NOT A SURPRISE THAT HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, WHICH IS OUR LARGEST EMPLOYMENT SECTOR IN THE STATE, IS THE ONE WHERE WE’VE SEEN THE MOST JOB GROWTH BETWEEN 2023 AND 2024. IN THAT GRAPH, CONSTRUCTION BEING UP AND MANUFACTURING BEING DOWN BETWEEN THOSE TWO YEARS, IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE IN THE EARLY 2025 DATA, BOTH OF THOSE TRENDS MAY BE CHANGING. BUT AGAIN, THOSE DATA COULD BE REVISED AT THIS POINT. AND THEN ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, RECREATION, ACCOMMODATION, FOOD SERVICES NOTED THAT UP LAST YEAR, THIS YEAR SO FAR THEY APPEAR TO BE DOWN. AGAIN THOSE ARE EARLY DATA FOR 2025. BUT IT SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKENING ECONOMY COULD BE DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACTING THOSE SECTORS. OKAY. NOW THIS GRAPH WE’RE GOING TO PUT UP SHOWS WHERE THE JOB MARKET HAS BEEN AND WHERE IT’S GOING. THIS IS THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF EMPLOYMENT SECURITY NUMBERS. IT SHOWS THE NEW HAMPSHIRE JOB MARKET DOING WELL UP UNTIL THIS YEAR. THEN IT CONTINUED TO DROP FROM JANUARY INTO THE SUMMER. PHIL, IS THIS DROP DUE TO. ANY UNCERTAINTY IN THE ECONOMY IN GENERAL? AND I’M THINKING IN PARTICULAR ABOUT BUSINESSES DOING BUSINESS IN CANADA, WHICH IS OUR NEIGHBOR. YES. SO THESE DATA ARE REPORTED BY RESIDENTS IN THE STATE WHO HAVE SAID THAT THEY FEWER OF THEM ARE EMPLOYED THAN WERE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. AGAIN, BASED ON THESE EARLY DATA, IF WE LOOK AT DATA FROM EMPLOYERS, THAT’S PRETTY STEADY, BUT IT’S NOT GROWTH. SO IT SUGGESTS THAT A LOT OF EMPLOYERS, WHETHER THEY ARE DOING BUSINESSES WITH OTHER COUNTRIES OR NOT, A LOT OF EMPLOYERS ARE RESPONDING TO A STATE OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY BY NOT LAYING OFF AS MANY WORKERS. IT DOESN’T APPEAR THAT THEY’RE SHEDDING JOBS, BUT THEY AREN’T HIRING AT THE SAME RATE THAT THEY WERE IN THE SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR. AND THEN THERE’S THE HOUSING IMPACT ON JOBS. AND THIS GRAPH SHOWS THAT THE MONTHLY MORTGAGE ESTIMATES FOR A NEWLY PURCHASED MEDIAN PRICED HOUSE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE GREEN BARS REPRESENT HOUSING DATA FROM 2015 ON THE LEFT THROUGH JULY OF THIS YEAR ON THE RIGHT, AND THE MONTHLY MORTGAGE PAYMENT WITH TAXES FOR A MEDIAN PRICED HOUSE THAT HAS GONE FROM 1004 97 A MONTH IN 2015 TO OVER 4002 25 AND 2025. PHIL, THE LACK OF HOUSING HAS GOT TO BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT JOBS. THIS HAS BEEN A MASSIVE INCREASE IN THE COST OF HOUSING FOR GRANITE STATERS, AND IT DOES MEAN THAT IT’S HARDER FOR PEOPLE TO BE ABLE TO MOVE HERE INTO THE STATE. TO ADD TO THE LABOR FORCE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THAT’S A CONTINUING STORY. BUT WHAT WE SEE WITH THIS INCREASE IN PRICES IS THAT AVERAGE WAGES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE LAST YEAR AND THUS FAR THIS YEAR, HAVE NOT OUTPACED INFLATION, WHICH MEANS THAT PEOPLE’S REAL SPENDING POWER HAS BEEN ERODED AND HOUSING IS PART OF THAT. YEAH, IT CERTAINLY IS. NOW, YOU AND THE FISCAL POLICY INSTITUTE. I UNDERSTAND, HAVE AN EVENT ON OCTOBER 24TH AT THE CENTER IN CONCORD THAT YOU CALL. IS THE TITLE WORKING HARD AND FALLING BEHIND THE HIGH COST OF LIVING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TELL US ABOUT IT. YES. SO WE’RE GOING TO BE EXAMINING WHAT ARE THE KEY DRIVERS OF THE COST OF LIVING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHAT IS THE HISTORICAL COMPARISON? HOW HAS THAT CHANGED RELATIVE TO, YOU KNOW, TEN, 20 YEARS AGO? AND WHAT ARE SOME OF THE WAYS THAT WE COLLECTIVELY CAN HELP MAKE IT LESS EXPENSIVE TO LIVE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE? AND I PLAN TO BE THERE. PHIL SLETTEN, WHO IS RESEARCH DIRECTOR AT THE NEW HAMPSHIRE FISCAL POLICY INSTITUTE IN CONCORD. THANK YOU. THANK YOU FRED. AND IF YOU MISSED THIS BRIEFING ON THE ECONOMY, YOU CAN GO TO WM
On today’s NH’s Business Research Director Phil Sletten, NH Fiscal Policy Institute, talks with Fred Kocher about the stalling of job growth in New Hampshire.
On today’s NH’s Business Research Director Phil Sletten, NH Fiscal Policy Institute, talks with Fred Kocher about the stalling of job growth in New Hampshire.