New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is widening her lead over potential Republican challenger Rep. Elise Stefanik in next year’s election for governor, according to a new Siena Poll released Tuesday.
The poll showed Hochul with 52% and Stefanik with 27%, up from 45-31% last month. It’s the first poll showing Hochul with the support of more than 50% of voters.
The poll of 802 registered New York voters was conducted between Sept. 8 and 10, notably before the governor announced her endorsement of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in the race for New York City.
“Stefanik – with a 21-34% favorability rating, down from 27-32% in August – trails among men by 11 points, while women support Hochul by 36 points, 58-22%,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Hochul leads in New York City (41 points), the downstate suburbs (23 points) and upstate (nine points). She also leads with white voters, 46-35%, Black voters, 73-6%, and Latino voters, 65-19%.”
Meanwhile, the poll found Hochul’s job approval and favorability ratings are up slightly from last month.
“Between 48-54% of all voters say Hochul works hard for people, demonstrates honesty, gets things done for New Yorkers, cares about people like them and provides decisive leadership,” said Greenberg.
Poll taken prior to Hochul endorsing Mamdani
The poll was taken prior to Hochul’s endorsement of Zohran Mamdani. Monday, Stefanik blasted Hochul for making that endorsement.
“Well, Kathy Hochul is the worst governor in America, and it was only a matter of time before she bent the knee for this raging anti-Semite communist. The reality is Kathy Hochul owns Zohran Mamdani’s position to defund the police, to abolish our law enforcement, to abolition prisons,” Stefanik said. “It is outrageous.”
Political experts predicted Hochul’s endorsement will hurt her reelection chances.
“Why would you do this? You just barely won your last election by 300,000 votes. You lost 52 out of 62 counties,” political analyst JC Polanco said. “Why would you do this and hurt your chances with the suburbs around New York City? The only thing that makes sense is the fear that is the fear that the democratic socialists of America are more popular than ever before, will sit this election out and may not support her in a reelection.”
Concerns about crime improve slightly
When it comes to crime statewide, 38% of the voters polled say it’s stayed about the same, 35% say it’s gotten worse and 23% say it’s gotten better. That’s compared to 30-54-12% in December 2024.
In their own communities, 52% of voters say it’s stayed about the same, 27% say it’s gotten worse and 19% say it’s gotten better, compared to 53-35-9% last December.
The poll also found 54% of the voters say they’re very or somewhat concerned about being a victim of a crime, while 45% say they’re not very or not at all concerned — down a little from 58-41% in December.
New Yorkers say no to National Guard
Of those polled, 57% say President Trump should not deploy the National Guard to New York City, while 37% say he should.
“City voters oppose it 61-32%, and it is opposed by 57% of downstate suburbanites and 53% of upstaters. Women oppose it two-to-one, while men narrowly oppose it, 52-46%. It is opposed by 52% of white voters and two-thirds of Black and Latino voters,” Greenberg said.