There was a time when going for it on fourth down made a football coach a character worthy of being depicted in a Kenny Rogers song. A gambler if you made it more times than not, or perhaps a 20th-century fool if you didn’t.
There was no in-between.
However, with the use of analytics becoming ubiquitous across college athletics, fourth-down attempts and conversions are skyrocketing.
According to CBS Sports, Week 0/1 this season set a new Football Bowl Subdivision record with 377 fourth-down tries, with teams converting 54.3% into first downs.
Aztecs head coach Sean Lewis went for it four times against Stony Brook that week in a 42-0 victory, with SDSU converting three of those attempts and scoring two touchdowns.
“We use analytics quite a bit,” Lewis said. “Through the support of the administration, we use Championship Analytics Inc. which isn’t unique. There’s a lot of teams that are using that.”
Indeed, the patented CAI Game Book is considered football’s analytical bible. Its creator, Michael McRoberts, is a lifetime football fan with a master’s degree in bioengineering from Clemson University. He spent decades working as a statistician in the financial sector before applying his statistical knowledge to help professional and college football teams improve their game management decisions.
Today, CAI consults with more than 100 football teams, including teams from the NFL and 22 collegiate conferences.
According to CAI, last season saw a record 1,626 conversion attempts, with offenses staying on the field for 25.4% of fourth downs, also a record.
In 2024, Lewis’ first year, the Aztecs finished tied for 15th in the FBS in fourth-down attempts (32) and tied for 24th in fourth-down conversions (17). Among Mountain West schools, only Air Force (36) went for it more often on fourth down. Air Force converted on 23 of those attempts.
“Depending upon the opponent, depending upon how we feel the game is going to be played, we work part of our weekly preparation with building out the Game Book,” Lewis said. “So we make those decisions going into each game knowing how aggressive we’re going to be and where we’re going to be in those spots.”
The game script in a 34-0 drubbing of Cal at Snapdragon Stadium last Saturday didn’t call for Lewis to keep his foot on the gas.
“I was a little less aggressive this past week when the book said there were a couple times we should have gone for two,” he said. “But I didn’t want to give any sort of momentum back to the other sideline with the way our defense was playing.”
The Aztecs’ defense carried the day with a goal-line stand on the Golden Bears’ opening drive and a pair of third-quarter takeaways for touchdowns — a 35-yard fumble return by safety Dwayne McDougle and a 97-yard interception return by cornerback Chris Johnson.
“As little as that could be, one point the other way,” Lewis said. “I’ve been in enough wonky deals to be like, ‘Hey, we’re going to be loyal to winning in that regard.’
“You go for one versus making it a 20-point or 28-point game, and it’s four possessions left at that point in time as you look up at the clock,” he said. “Again, the rep from CAI is like, ‘Coach, you know you need to’ … I’m like, ‘I get it.’
“The data says that, but my guys were telling me this, right?”
Lewis plans to maintain his “default aggressive” approach: “We lean on that, and you know again, by personality when you cross the 50, we’re going to be a little bit more aggressive in those ranges, in those areas.”
Aztecs coach Rocky Long in 2017. (Hayne Palmour IV / San Diego Union-Tribune)
Rocky’s road to success
It was just over a decade ago when Rocky Long, in his second season as SDSU’s coach, caused a national stir after saying during fall camp that he might go for every fourth down once the Aztecs were inside their opponents’ 50-yard line.
Talk-show hosts weighed in from all directions. Math geeks saw an opportunity to validate their formulas. Some football people believed Long had gone mad.
Long explained to the Union-Tribune after practice one day: “I have people, mathematicians, economists, and they’re sending me their papers. And I’m reading them. They have formulas that estimate this and that. They are telling you that, mathematically, it is much better in certain positions to go for it on fourth down than it is in others.
“And then I get the emails where everybody is saying I’m crazy and stupid because football is a game of field possession and toughness and this and that.”
With the help of SDSU business professor Jim Lackritz, Long devised a chart based on an algorithm that determined when the Aztecs should go for it on fourth down or attempt a two-point conversion after a touchdown. The chart predated McRoberts’ system by a year.
In 2012, SDSU finished tied for 17th nationally in fourth-down conversions (16); tied for 33rd nationally in fourth-down attempts (24); and tied for 16th nationally in fourth-down conversion percentage (66.7%).
The Aztecs won the first of three Mountain West championships under long.
San Diego State Aztecs take the field before their game against the Stony Brook Seawolves at Snapdragon Stadium on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025 in San Diego, CA. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
We’ve come a long way
Lewis was recruited as a quarterback, but converted to tight end under Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez, a College Football Hall of Famer.
“It was quite a bit different, especially when I was a player,” Lewis said. “None of this was a thing. It was more gut. It was more feel.
“Playing for Coach Alvarez, it was run the darn ball and end every possession with a kick and play to the defense as a former defensive coordinator, right? And that worked quite a bit, actually.”
But everything must evolve or become obsolete, and analytics have helped turn the once-risky into routine.
Exhibit A: Just four minutes into the game last Saturday against Clemson, Syracuse head coach Fran Brown called a successful onside kick with the Orange already leading 7-0. It stunned the Tigers and set the tone for a 34-21 win, the first in program history at Death Valley.
Lewis praised the move this week.
“Syracuse took advantage of something they saw on tape early on with the surprise onside kick,” he said. “You’re always looking for potential chinks in the armor that we can exploit and create an advantage. It’s all gamesmanship.”
Lewis has adapted to analytics during his coaching journey.
“It’s a new tool that we all have, and I think like any new tool, whether it’s analytics in the Game Book for us or it’s artificial intelligence for us as a society, it’s about how familiar can you get with it?” he said. “What’s your level of comfort and what’s the proper application where you’re still staying true to yourself? What puts you and your team in the best position to win?”
Coaches have never been more aggressive, and now, if they make the wrong call, they can do what the rest of us have been doing for thousands of years: Blame math.
BOX: They’re going for it
The Aztecs have gone for it on fourth down eight times already this season, converting half their attempts. Here’s a look at each one:
Game 1: SDSU 42, Stony Brook 0
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-2 from Stony Brook’s 27 (7:33 left in first quarter)
What happened: Lucky Sutton 2-yard run, first down
Drive result (score): Touchdown (SDSU 7, Stony Brook 0)
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-4 from Stony Brook’s 32 (7:29 remaining in third quarter)
What happened: Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan Napier
Drive result (score): Turnover on downs (San Diego State 20, Stony Brook 0)
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-goal from Stony Brook’s 2 (1:43 remaining in third quarter)
What happened: Sutton 2-yard run
Drive result (score): Touchdown (San Diego State 28, Stony Brook 0)
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-goal from Stony Brook’s 1 (11:08 remaining in game)
What happened: Christian Washington 1-yard run
Drive result (score): Touchdown (San Diego State 35, Stony Brook 0)
Game 2: Washington State 36, San Diego State 13
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-5 at Washington State’s 35 (10:07 left in first quarter)
What happened: Denegal 35-yard pass to Jacob Bostick
Drive result (score): Touchdown (San Diego State 7, Washington State 0)
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-3 at Washington State’s 49 (7:40 left in third quarter)
What happened: Denegal incomplete pass to Jackson Ford
Drive result (score): Turnover on downs (Washington State 26, San Diego State 7)
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-7 from Washington State’s 37 (12:30 left in game)
What happened: Denegal incomplete pass to Donovan Brown
Drive result (score): Turnover on downs (Washington State 29, San Diego State 13)
Down and distance (time remaining): Fourth-and-9 from Washington State’s 46 (9:11 left in game)
What happened: Denegal sacked for loss of 12 yards
Drive result (score): Turnover on downs (Washington State 29, San Diego State 13)
Game 3: San Diego State 34, Cal 0
No attempts
San Diego State (2-1) at Northern Illinois (1-2)
When: 12:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Huskie Stadium, Dekalb, Ill.
TV: ESPN+
Radio: 760-AM