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July 1, 2025 – 00:24

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks are poised for a cautious open as investors weigh the buoyant mood on Wall Street with lingering concerns over the global impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.

Equity futures pointed to a decline in Tokyo as the US leader threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan, while Hong Kong looked higher and Sydney flat. That’s after the S&P 500 notched its best quarter since December 2023 on Monday, with technology shares leading the charge. 

Wall Street’s bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a solid quarter amid hopes the US is moving closer to reaching concrete deals with its top trading partners. Bets the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts powered the best first-half stretch for Treasuries in five years. 

Still, broader uncertainty over Trump’s tariff agenda on the long-term structure of the global economy can be seen in the dollar posting a 10.8% slide in the year’s opening six months — its worst first-half performance since 1973. 

On Monday on Wall Street, Apple Inc. climbed the most among megacaps. Oracle Corp. jumped on a cloud-services deal worth $30 billion a year. Big banks gained after passing the Fed’s annual stress test, setting the stage for payouts.

“Markets proved remarkably adaptable and resilient in the face of geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainty in the first half, largely because economic and profit conditions stood on firm footing,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.

Just days ahead of the US jobs report, bonds rose. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense to ramp up sales of longer-term debt given where yields are, though he held out hope that rates across maturities will drop as inflation slows. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects a Fed cut in September as the inflationary effects of tariffs “look a bit smaller” than expected.

A relative sense of calm prevailed at the end of a first half that saw wild swings lashing markets across the board amid President Donald Trump’s fast-evolving trade war, world conflicts and recession jitters as well as concerns about a ballooning deficit that could threaten America’s status as a safe haven.

“No one could fault an investor if at one point during the first half of 2025 they shouted, ‘Stop the world, I want to get off’,” said Sam Stovall at CFRA.

With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline fast approaching, the European Union is willing to accept an accord that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but seeks key exemptions. Trump’s top economic adviser said the White House aims to finalize deals with partners after the July 4 holiday.

“The biggest catalyst for financial markets as a whole could be progress in trade talks – of a lack thereof,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “As long as there are no major escalations again in the Middle East or in the trade war, you’d think stock markets may not suffer much on any macro data. Still, there is always room for surprises.”

The June employment report, due on Thursday given the July 4 holiday on Friday, is forecast to show growth in the workforce easing to about 110,000 new jobs from 139,000 the prior month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is seen nudging up to 4.3%.

For a Fed awaiting more clarity on the potential inflationary impact from tariffs, any pronounced deterioration in the labor market would likely lead to more pressure on officials to lower rates. 

Meanwhile, Chinese investors may have been deflated on Monday by fresh data that showed the value of new-home sales from the 100 largest property companies fell 23% from a year ago, putting further strain on the economy and underscoring the impetus for fresh support measures. 

Gold gained on Monday to trade back over $3,300 an ounce. Oil edged down after its biggest weekly loss in two years as fears of Middle East tensions disrupting global oil flows dissipated.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • Hang Seng futures rose 0.4% as of 7:14 a.m. Tokyo time
  • S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed
  • Nikkei 225 futures fell 0.6%
  • S&P 500 futures were little changed

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
  • The euro was little changed at $1.1782
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 144.03 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1584 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $107,332.14
  • Ether fell 0.4% to $2,493.65

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.23%

Commodities

  • Spot gold was little changed
  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $64.97 a barrel

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