- Time and date: Saturday, October 11 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: TNT
- Location: Boone Pickens Stadium — Stillwater, OK
- Spread: Houston (-14.5)
- Over/under: 46.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 10-10-1
- Last meeting: Oklahoma State 43, Houston 30 — November 18, 2023
- Current streak: Oklahoma State, 1 (2023)
Ever since Sept. 21, 2023, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have been a living in a twisted, bizarro nightmare that is the complete antithesis of the previous two decades. Those in Stillwater couldn’t even remember what a losing season tasted like during an impressive 18-year winning streak under Mike Gundy from 2006-23 — finishing ranked more often than not. But now Gundy is gone, and the Cowboys continue their stumble to rock bottom with 13 consecutive FBS losses for the second-longest streak in the country.
When does it end? The Houston Cougars stroll into town as two-touchdown favorites expected to break the all-time series tie. Houston is fresh off a reality check defeat to the Big 12’s top juggernaut in Texas Tech. Despite a 4-1 start, the Cougars realize there’s still work to do to crash the contenders’ circle, and they’ll look for a rebound during their first trip to Stillwater since 2009.
Houston DT Carlos Allen ranks first in the FBS among defensive tackles with 37 tackles. Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Houston (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) finally saw its undefeated run come to a close. Everything was in place for the Cougars’ moment in a primetime Saturday night atmosphere accompanied by a sold-out TDECU Stadium. However, Houston couldn’t overcome one of the country’s most dominant forces in Texas Tech, falling in decisive 35-11 fashion.
Down 22-3 in the second quarter, things only got worse for Houston as starting quarterback Conner Weigman suffered a concussion and never returned to action. While the Cougars got a quick touchdown on a deep ball from backup Zeon Chriss-Gremillion, Houston’s offense stalled the entire second half with four quick punts, three turnovers on downs, and two interceptions. Getting Weigman back is a priority, and Houston is on track to do so per head coach Willie Fritz. A full participant in practice, the Texas A&M transfer has thrown for 910 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions in five starts — showcasing his mobility in an 83-yard rushing performance vs. Colorado.
Weigman’s rushing may take a back seat with the injury, but Houston still has the personnel to move the sticks through lead back Dean Connors. The run game stalled vs. Texas Tech, but Connors proved his merit with a combined 221 yards and three touchdowns in wins over Rice and Colorado. This week presents a more favorable matchup for Connors and Co., pitted against a struggling Oklahoma State run defense.
Houston hasn’t thrown for 300 in a game this year; however, the Cougar passing game was progressing week-by-week until Weigman’s injury. The deep ball is being incorporated more with Stephon Johnson and Amare Thomas as frequent downfield targets, and tight end Tanner Koziol presents a strong dynamic as a reliable 6’7”, 250 pound short yardage specialist. Koziol leads the group with 25 receptions and two touchdowns, while Johnson’s 26.1 receiving average speaks volumes about his ability to get that extra step on defenders on deep posts and streaks.
The Cougars average 27.2 points per game to rank 80th in the country, and they’re fresh off their first sub-20-point game of 2025. While the offense stutters at times, the defense is the far more consistent unit. Houston ranks 29th in scoring defense and showcased its bend-don’t-break ability vs. Texas Tech by limiting the Red Raiders to five red zone field goals in seven true road zone attempts (excluding victory formation). The Cougars fly around with ferocious speed and often tackle exceptionally well in the secondary.
The passing defense is the strength of the unit, led by a horde of five different transfer defensive backs who all have an interception on the season. Southern Miss transfer corner Will James has been an especially welcome presence, contributing in a variety of departments with three tackles for loss, a pick-six, a forced fumble, and 15 tackles. Latrell McCutchin is another standout corner, and he offers three pass breakups and 25 tackles as one of the veteran leaders in the room.
Up front, defensive tackle Carlos Allen is on an All-Big 12 pace. The 6’1”, 295 pounder leads all defensive tackles in the FBS with 37 stops, consistently shedding off blockers to produce first-level stops. Defensive end Eddie Walls III is one of the main benefactors of Allen’s presence, feasting in his home with 4.5 tackles for loss and two sacks on the year. With the havoc up front, Houston is a +3 in the turnover battle this year, and that’s the main determinant of wins and losses in the Fritz era. The Cougars are 7-0 with a favorable turnover margin and 1-8 with an unfavorable margin under Fritz — and there’s never been a tie.
Oklahoma State Cowboys outlook
Sam Jackson V is one of two quarterback options for Oklahoma State this week. Formerly a QB from 2022-23, Jackson played receiver for the Cowboys until last week. Getty Images
Oklahoma State (1-4, 0-2 Big 12) desperately needs a sign of life or evidence that there are more wins left on the schedule. The Cowboys suffered some brutal defeats in the early going, getting erased 69-3 by Oregon and losing a Friday night home game to Tulsa before the firing of Mike Gundy. Under interim Doug Meacham, Oklahoma State somewhat revived for its best offensive performance of the year in a 45-27 loss to Baylor, but the Cowboys were quickly disposed of on the road at Arizona in 41-13 fashion.
The Cowboys need adjustments in the face of adversity, but one of the adjustments isn’t under the team’s control. Starting quarterback Hauss Hejny fractured a bone in his left foot in Week 1 and backup Zane Flores suffered a shoulder injury in Tucson, and now Oklahoma State considers two options. One is wide receiver Sam Jackson V, a former quarterback who earned three wins in all three career starts at California in 2023. Jackson briefly transitioned back to his old position at Arizona, completing 3-of-6 passes for 27 yards, and he’ll present doses of athleticism and mobility at the position. The other choice is true freshman Banks Bowen — the son of interim defensive coordinator Clint Bowen. Banks Bowen only has two passing attempts to date, and he’ll enter Saturday with a lack of collegiate film for Houston to study.
Regardless of the quarterback, Oklahoma State demands a skill position player step up and create a name for himself. The Cowboys produced some of the country’s best running backs and receivers throughout the 2010s, but nobody has 220 rushing yards or 160 receiving yards through five games. Leading rusher Rodney Fields Jr. is one candidate to bolster the ground game with 5.2 yards per carry on the season. Through the air, a potential breakout player is Division II All-American receiver Terrill Davis. Davis currently ranks second on the group in receiving yards, and he’ll aim to pick up a passing game which generated just 69 yards vs. Arizona in Week 6.
Although Oklahoma State surrendered 41 points in the Arizona game, there were several signs of progress for the defense now coordinated by Clint Bowen. The Cowboys logged six sacks and 11 tackles for loss and won the turnover battle 3-2. Redshirt freshman edge rusher Wendell Gregory continues to be one of the young stars on the team, racking up three tackles for loss in Tucson to raise his total to 8.5 on the season.
The defense will operate without a slew of key pieces vs. Houston, ranging from injured defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson to safety Dylan Smith who entered the transfer portal. Although progress was shown last Saturday, the Cowboys still rank 114th in run defense, 132 in pass defense, and 131st in overall yards allowed per game. Oklahoma State proved its ability to stifle the run a week ago, but the Cowboys will need a multifaceted performance moving forward. Cornerback Kale Smith (19 tackles, 1 interception) will be among the veterans looking to shore up the passing defense as Houston enters town.
Should points be at a premium against a stellar Houston defense, Oklahoma State can be reassured by its kicking game. Logan Ward is 9-of-10 on field goals this season, and he’s 3-of-4 beyond 45 yards as a reliable long range threat.
Oklahoma State’s struggling offense would prefer more favorable matchups than this Houston defense, which limited its first four opponents to 13.3 points per game before an uphill battle against Texas Tech. The Cowboys are working through injuries and transfers, still tinkering with the depth chart in order to find a winning solution.
Sam Jackson V, whom interim head coach Doug Meacham said plays similarly to former TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin, will provide an interesting dynamic at quarterback and Houston must be able to contain his mobility outside the pocket. However, the Cowboys haven’t shown the ability to consistently threaten teams with their skill position guys, and the Cougars’ well-rounded defense should be able to win most battles when the home team possesses the ball.
For Oklahoma State to win this game, it must be a low-scoring defensive bout. Houston returns Conner Weigman which should help the passing offense tremendously, and that’s where the Cougars can inflict most damage on the orange and black. Expect a monster performance from Tanner Koziol and either Stephon Johnson or Amare Thomas as Houston sets its three-year high by winning a fifth game.
Prediction: Houston 27, Oklahoma State 13