JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Action News Jax has obtained a new analysis conducted by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) – an independent, non-partisan, global nonprofit focused on clean energy – that concluded Jacksonville has a better, cheaper, and healthier alternative to JEA’s proposed natural gas plant that could cause up to $1 billion in health damages in Duval County.

The organization, made up of more than 700 experts worldwide, reviewed the JEA decision to build a new $1.57 billion gas plant and found that clean energy portfolios (CEPs) could deliver the same reliability at a lower cost and with far more benefits for the community.

JEA’s Gas Plant Plan Under Scrutiny

In August, JEA’s board approved the construction of a 675-megawatt gas plant at the former St. Johns River Power Park site in North Jacksonville that would begin operations around 2031. However, RMI’s analysis found that the cost per kilowatt (kW) is more than double JEA’s original projections. Not only is the plant significantly more expensive than expected, but it’s also already delayed by 2–3 years.

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Finding #1: Energy Efficiency Is Being Overlooked

One of RMI’s findings is that Jacksonville isn’t doing nearly enough with energy efficiency.

JEA’s current outlook uses only 14% of its maximum potential for energy efficiency, with a high scenario of 28%. But RMI’s models show that using even 45% or ideally up to 64% could massively reduce the need for new gas-powered generation.

Finding #2: Clean Energy Portfolios Cost Less and Offer More Stability

RMI compared clean energy options like solar, batteries, and efficiency upgrades to gas, using up-to-date industry numbers. The results? The report says CEPs beat the gas plant on cost and reliability.

While JEA estimated gas plant capital costs at about $1,048 per kW, real-world data from a Duke Energy project in Indiana showed actual costs at $2,453 per Kw, more than twice as much.

Finding #3: Health Costs from Gas Would Top $2 Billion

One of the most serious concerns raised is health.

According to RMI’s use of the EPA’s COBRA tool, emissions from the gas plant could cause up to $1 billion in health damages in Duval County alone and more than $2 billion statewide over the life of the plant.

Over the gas plant’s lifetime, pollutants from the plant are projected to cause 155 premature deaths, 665 new asthma cases, more than 105,000 asthma symptom incidents, 56,000 school-day losses, and 3,600 workday losses.

Finding #4: Clean Energy Brings Big Local Benefits

Switching to clean energy wouldn’t just cut emissions and costs – it would create thousands of jobs and bring in hundreds of millions of dollars in local revenue.

Depending on the scenario, clean energy could create between 3,300 to 5,200 construction jobs and over 60 permanent operations jobs. It could also provide up to $757 million in combined economic benefits through taxes, wages, and land lease payments.

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Is Natural Gas ready?

Action News Jax has learned JEA has reached a deal with purchase a turbine from GE Vernova — the heart of the new power plant. However, the terms of the agreement have yet to be released. GE already told JEA its turbines are largely sold out for 2026 and 2027 and is currently fulfilling orders for 2028. However, turbine delivery times are reportedly stretching up to 7 years, fueled by high demand from AI data centers, new manufacturing and utilities racing to strengthen aging infrastructure.

According to Florida-based NextEra, which owns Florida Power and Light, CEO John Ketchum, alluded to those near-term obstacles to increasing natural gas capacity at the Politico Energy Summit in June.

“We need a bridge to get ourselves to 2032 when that gas shows up,” Ketchum said. “And when that gas shows up, it’s going to be three times more expensive than it’s ever been.

“If we take renewables off the table, we are going to have a real power shortage problem in this country.”

Action News Jax first reported in September, the Sierra Club’s annual Dirty Truth Report called out JEA for being behind on clean, affordable energy and gave the utility a failing grade for its clean energy transition.

JEA Statement on RMI

It is JEA’s goal to continue providing essential energy to our customers reliably, cost-effectively and sustainably. We disagree with RMI’s findings on the impacts of JEA’s plans for a combined cycle natural gas plant and the organization’s proposed alternatives to meet our generation needs. We have conducted extensive planning to ensure the resources we acquire are the most cost effective, reliable generation sources for our community. And we can assure our customers that a combined cycle plant will not cause harm to public health. JEA has reduced its carbon emissions by 53 percent since 2007 with the closing of St. Johns River Power Park coal-fired plant and the decommissioning of Plant Scherer Unit 4 in Juliette, Ga. The new combined cycle plant is targeted to come online in 2031 and is planned to replace and/or augment the electricity currently being produced by the 48-year-old Northside Generation Station (NGS) Unit 3, a natural gas & oil unit. This infrastructure investment will allow JEA to strengthen system reliability and meet future energy demands along with the following benefits:

Lower Carbon Emissions: A combined cycle plant uses both a gas turbine and a steam turbine, capturing and reusing waste heat, which makes them far more efficient than traditional plants.

Cleaner Energy Mix: By displacing an older, less efficient plant, a new combined cycle plant will help cut overall CO2 emissions.

Energy Efficiency: The new combined cycle plant is up to 64% more efficient as compared to the older technologies.

Economic Value: By delivering reliable power, the plant helps attract sustainable businesses and investments to the region.

Future-Proofing: The new combined cycle plant is capable to be adapted in the future to run on hydrogen or other low-carbon fuels, ensuring long-term environmental benefits.

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