Zohran Mamdani appears to be sustaining a sizable lead in the race for New York City mayor, according to a new poll, just as the campaigns are entering their final days.

In a Marist poll conducted from Oct. 24-28, Mamdani held a 16-point lead over Andrew Cuomo among likely voters. The Democratic nominee was the choice for close to a majority of respondents (48%), more than Cuomo’s 32%. It’s the highest Mamdani has polled at recently, while Cuomo’s support was about even with what other polls have shown, if not a percentage point or two down.

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee in the race, got support from 16% of likely voters, according to the poll published Thursday.

While Sliwa has vigorously maintained that he will not bow out, the poll does show the race tighten significantly if it were just between Mamdani and Cuomo: Mamdani got the backing of 51% of likely voters, while Cuomo got 44%. Conversely, without Cuomo in the race, Mamdani would develop a 26-point lead over Sliwa, 59% to 33%, the poll found.

The poll surveyed 1,134 adults in New York City, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points.

In September, a separate Marist poll showed Mamdani with a 21-point advantage in the race, though that was including Mayor Eric Adams. When that same poll surveyed a then-hypothetical three-way race without Adams, Mamdani had a 16-point lead over Cuomo (46%-30%).

The Marist results show a less competitive race than other recent polls have suggested. On Wednesday, a Quinnipiac poll showed Mamdani maintaining a 10-point lead, getting support from 43% of likely voters. Cuomo was at 33%, and Sliwa at 14%.

At the time it was published, it was the second poll in three days showing Cuomo within 10 points of the frontrunner Mamdani. A Suffolk University poll from Monday had the Democratic nominee at 44%, while Cuomo polled at 34% and Sliwa at 11%.

An expert who helped conduct that poll said one person had the potential to have “an outsized impact on the outcome,” and it wasn’t who many might expect.

“That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Sen. Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race. And when asked for their second choice, those voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani 36%-2%,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said.

That Suffolk poll showed a tremendous surge in support for Cuomo from the previous one conducted in September, which showed Mamdani with a 20-point lead in a four-way race the included Mayor Adams, who has since dropped out and endorsed Cuomo.

Early voting kicked off on Saturday, and since then, hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers have packed the polls. The unofficial early counts have voting totals surging far beyond early totals in 2021; that election, however, was held in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Early voting will continue in New York City each day through Sunday, Nov. 2. Opening and closing times vary by day.

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 4, when polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.