While an end to the longest government shutdown in history may be in sight, the number of flight cancelations at 40 busy airports across the U.S. including in Chicago is expected to rise significantly Tuesday as airports need to meet a higher threshold ordered by the Federal Aviation Administration.

The increase in cancellations comes a day after an hours-long after ground delay at O’Hare due to “staffing,” amid an already challenging time as a winter storm dumped inches of snow across the Chicago area.

As of 6:30 a.m. Tuesday, 123 cancellations were reported at O’Hare, with 23 at Midway, but those numbers are likely to increase as the FAA is set to go from eliminating 4% of flights to 6%.

By Friday, the FAA, will order 10% of flights to be cut.

Overall, more than 7,900 flights across the country have been canceled since Friday due to the FAA order, which is meant to scale back demand and relieve pressure on air traffic controllers.

Chicago-based United Airlines has released its flight schedule changes through Wednesday, with more than 250 routes impacted. According United, the airline’s long-haul international travel will not be affected, nor will flights between United’s seven hub airports, which include Chicago O’Hare, Denver, Houston Intercontinental, Los Angeles, Newark Liberty International, San Francisco and Washington Dulles.

Flight disruptions could continue after shutdown ends

Because flight disruptions are widespread and ongoing, many planes aren’t where they’re supposed to be, which could also slow the airlines’ return to normal operations even after the FAA lifts the order, said Mike Taylor, who leads research on airports and airlines at J.D. Power.

“If you think about it, there’s all these aircraft that didn’t fly where they were supposed to on a normal route,” Taylor said, noting airlines will need to track down all their planes, figure out where each needs to be, and find pilots and cabin crew for those flights.

The shutdown has made controllers’ demanding jobs even more stressful, leading to fatigue and increased risks, said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. He said the number who are retiring or quitting is “growing” by the day.

During the six weekends since the shutdown began, an average of 30 air traffic control facilities had staffing issues. That’s almost four times the number on weekends this year before the shutdown, according to an Associated Press analysis of operations plans sent through the Air Traffic Control System Command Center system.

Tuesday will be the second missed payday for controllers. It’s unclear how quickly they might be paid once the shutdown ends — it took more than two months to receive full back pay after the 35-day shutdown that ended in 2019, Daniels said.

When is the next shutdown vote?

The Senate passed legislation Monday to reopen the government, with eight Democrats, including Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin breaking with their party. But the bill still needs to clear the House and final passage could be days away. 

Still, the 41-day shutdown could last a few more days as members of the House, which has been on recess since mid-September, return to Washington to vote on the legislation. President Donald Trump has signaled support for the bill, saying Monday that “we’re going to be opening up our country very quickly.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson urged lawmakers to start returning to Washington “right now” given shutdown-related travel delays, but an official notice issued after the Senate vote said the earliest the House will vote is Wednesday afternoon.

“It appears our long national nightmare is finally coming to an end,” said Johnson, who has kept the House out of session since mid-September, when the House passed a bill to continue government funding.

In a statement sent Monday, American Airlines called on the Senate and the House to act “immediately.”

“For 40 days, federal aviation workers haven’t been paid, and our customers have endured thousands of delays and cancellations due to the government shutdown,” the airline’s statement said. “It’s imperative that we get the hardworking aviation safety and security professionals paid, and that we get the country moving again.”