If you’re a Toronto sports fan, you’ve had a busy fall. You watched the Toronto Blue Jays stumble down the stretch in September, only to find their footing just in time to win the AL East on the regular season’s final day. Then you watched them handle the New York Yankees in the ALDS before coming back to beat the Seattle Mariners in a thrilling Game 7 classic in the ALCS. That led to one of the greatest World Series ever played, with the underdog Jays giving the fat cat Los Angeles Dodgers all they could handle before losing a heartbreaking winner-take-all showdown, literally coming just inches away from a championship.

After all of that, you probably needed some time off to recover. But now the snow has arrived, and it’s time to turn your attention back to that other blue-and-white team that’s still playing. Right, the Maple Leafs, that’s what they’re called. It’s time to start watching them again.

So, you may be wondering: How are the Leafs doing?

Let’s get you caught up, with my special guide to the Maple Leafs season for Blue Jays fans who haven’t been paying attention because of the whole agonizing championship near-miss thing. We’ll do this in a Q&A format, and by the end, you’ll be back up to speed on everything you missed.

Whew, that sure was an exhausting MLB playoff run. It didn’t end the way we wanted it to, but it was full of thrilling wins, clutch performances and hero-making individual efforts from the biggest stars in the biggest moments, all in front of roaring crowds cheering on a team that was genuinely likeable from top to bottom and clearly loved playing together.

Anyway, how about those Leafs?

(Smiling broadly while gritting teeth so hard they grind into sand.)

Are they good? They had 108 points and even won a playoff round last year, and then they got decent marks for navigating a tough offseason. They’re probably pretty good, right?

Um … I wouldn’t say “good.” I mean, all of this stuff is subjective, but “good” feels a little strong. Let’s stay away from good.

Oof. So they’re bad.

Not necessarily. The Flames are bad. The Blues are bad. The Sabres are the Sabres. The Leafs aren’t quite down in the dregs with those teams, at least not yet.

So, they’re mediocre?

Somehow also no. I mean, the .500 record is, but the team hasn’t been. Most nights, they either look like Cup contenders or they’re awful. Lately it’s mostly been the latter. Sometimes it’s even both on the same night. So no, calling them mediocre doesn’t totally work.

Right. So this whole post is going to be one of those tedious “nobody actually knows anything” gimmicks because these are the Maple Leafs and they’re ever so complicated and mysterious?

Oh no, not that either. Look, we’re all pretty sure we know where this team is headed, and it’s nowhere good. The confusing part is why it’s happening, and who to blame. And maybe most important of all, what, if anything, they could do to fix it. But nobody, up to and including the most diehard of Maple Leafs homers, thinks the first month was anywhere good enough.

Got it. So … they’re bad?

Yes! Except they’re not. They’re still .500, and like a point or two out of the wild-card race with five months left to go. They went into last night’s game with an identical record to the Panthers, and nobody seems to think Florida is in any real trouble. A team’s record isn’t everything, of course, but the way some people talk about this Leafs team, you’d assume they’re in the running for top lottery odds, and they’re nowhere close.

They’re a tough team to get a handle on, is what I’m trying to say, which is why everyone seems so frustrated with them right now.

Well, I’m sure it’s not everyone. Hey, at least they know that Dom’s model will always love them, am I right?

See, here’s the thing about that …

Oh no!

Yeah, it’s not good.

But it’s also not surprising. The underlying numbers that models like this run off of have not been great this year, which Dom explains in more detail in this recent piece. The Leafs’ expected goals in all situations has been well below water over the first month, which continues a worrying trend from last year. Only now, they’re not getting bailed out by Vezina-caliber goaltending from Anthony Stolarz, who’s been OK but not great, and left last night’s game with an injury. Mix in an anemic power play and a few injuries, and the margin for error has completely collapsed.

OK, but those are the numbers. What’s the eye test say?

If anything, it’s even worse, at least over the last week. It feels like every second shift involves a breakaway or an odd-man rush against. When they do have the puck, they’re either immediately dumping it in or making way too many cute plays, with no in-between. Oh, and they’re squishy soft, with virtually no pushback , even when other teams are running their goalie. It’s a hard watch, as the kids say.

Has anyone made a joke about them already being in postseason mode?

Literally everyone, but thanks.

That Dom piece you linked to placed some blame on Craig Berube. He must be furious at how this is all going.

Oh absolutely. Jonas has more on that angle here, where he describes the coach as “ready to explode.” And that sounds right, given how he looks behind the bench most nights. He really does seem to be beside himself with this crew.

Well, that’s good though, right? That was half the appeal of bringing Berube in — that he was a crusty veteran with a Cup ring who wouldn’t baby these guys like Sheldon Keefe always did. He’s probably benching guys left and right!

Uh …

Speaking of accountability, what’s the front office doing about all this?

Well, Brad Treliving has been pretty quiet so far, both in terms of public pronouncements and also as far as making roster moves. The rumor mill says all the usual stuff, about exploring options and kicking tires and planting seeds. But so far, no major changes.

Yeah, that makes sense. You don’t want to disrupt things too much. By the way, what did we eventually end up getting back for Nick Robertson, David Kämpf and Calle Järnkrok once those deals finally happened?

(mumbling) You see, the cap makes trading very complicated, and these things take time, and you can’t just trade your sixth-line center without taking a few months to really …

Never mind, a front office can only do so much. Speaking of which, I’m assuming Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua and Matias Maccelli are all producing. Plus Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton from last year’s trade deadline. Hey, the GM is doing his part, right?

(Deep sigh.)

OK, but hold on, the season is only a month old. Don’t they do this every year? I feel like they always start slow, and everyone panics and then they flip a switch and get it all figured out by December, while the rest of us swear we won’t fall for the same routine next time.

That’s largely true. In the four Octobers from 2021 to 2024, the Leafs lost more games than they won, going a combined 19-15-5. But in those same years, their November record was a combined 38-9-6, which helped them to relatively easy playoff spots each time.

But this year, there are two key areas for concern. The first, like we already said, is that the underlying numbers are worse than we’re used to. And also, October was a while ago — we’re six games into November, and the turnaround has been less obvious, if it’s happening at all. They won their first three in November, but have now lost their last three straight, and looked awful doing it.

Add it all up, and this looks like a team that overperformed a year ago thanks largely to great goaltending and the power play, and now that those areas have come back to the pack, they’re just a very middling team

Is it safe to assume that Mitch Marner’s departure is a big factor here?

Yes, although we can debate just how much, especially since you don’t want to let everyone else off the hook. But it’s fair to say that they haven’t come close to replacing his offense, certainly not in the aggregate with all those middle-six guys they brought in over the summer. He was a key part of the power play when it was cooking, and they miss him there. And he was a good player in his own zone, where they need all the help they can get this year.

Needless to say, he’s looked great in Vegas so far.

Ah, but he always disappeared in the playoffs.

Luckily, that may not be a problem for this year’s team.

So there’s just no good news at all?

There is, which is part of what makes this all so frustrating. William Nylander is scoring at an Art Ross pace. John Tavares has been fantastic. And Matthew Knies has been a bit uneven, but is producing at well over a point-per-game. With those guys driving the offense, they’ve been near the top of the league in goals for most of the season.

What about Auston Matthews?

He started slow and then got hurt last night. But in between, he was good for like three games in a row.

See? That’s positive!

So wait, their best forwards are all scoring at close to unsustainable paces and they still can’t win?

OK, maybe it’s not so positive. You know, for someone who hasn’t paid attention to this team for the last month, you’re kind of bumming us all out.

Sorry. It’s just that this all sounds very serious.

“Serious” might not be the word you’re looking for. But yeah, patience is wearing very thin in Toronto. That’s not to say that they can’t turn it around. This could be a repeat of the same old story from previous years, where they find their feet in November and then it’s off to the races.

What’s the rest of the schedule look like for the month?

Let’s check. It says here they’ve got games against the Blackhawks this weekend, the Canadiens the week after that, then they head to Pittsburgh…

Oh well that’s good, all those teams are borderline playoff contenders at best.

Man, you really do need to get caught up.

OK, so let’s summarize: They’re mired in a slump that’s dropped them down to .500. They’re currently outside of the playoffs. The analytics are bad. The eye test is worse. They can’t keep the puck out of their own net. The power play is broken. The coach is seething but isn’t really doing much. The GM is AWOL. The captain and starting goalie might both be hurt. The fans are turning on them. Does that cover it all?

Don’t forget that Marner’s having a great time in Vegas.

Yeah, maybe I don’t need to watch these guys after all. It sounds like there isn’t much hope for the rest of the season.

Well, hold on. It will definitely get better in early February.

Why, what happens then?

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training.