Liberal moderates are split on whether they can sell the party’s “compromise” climate policy, with several warning city voters cannot be won without a firm net zero commitment.
Most of the party has backed scrapping the 2050 target and while many Liberals who wanted to keep net zero say they are happy with the position the party has landed, some despondent moderates fear electoral oblivion in metropolitan seats.
Liberals in the shadow ministry on Thursday signed off on a plan to ditch net zero by 2050 and repeal Labor’s emission reduction mechanisms and in favour of a “technology-led” approach where affordability and reliability are prioritised.
Liberal Party formally abandons net zero by 2050 climate target
As a “compromise” the Liberals would still “welcome” society theoretically achieving net zero, and support Australia remaining in the Paris Agreement.
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley said she was confident the Liberals could win seats across Australia with this policy as Labor’s approach to climate action was “not working”.
She said her party would be pitching “serious, credible, compelling policy alternatives at the next election”, including to city seats.
“People in the city are struggling with affordability of energy costs,” she said.
But between now and the 2028 election, Ms Ley faces an uphill battle keeping her party united, with some conservatives still unhappy about the Liberal platform mentioning net zero at all.
Agitators in the Liberals’ right faction are making no secret of their ambition to eventually topple Ms Ley as leader.
Now, even some of the moderates who helped install her into the top job believe Ms Ley’s days are numbered, with one telling the ABC a leadership challenge was a “given”.
“I think blinking on net zero has created that problem, (the right faction) will come after immigration next,” a moderate Liberal said.
Liberals Andrew Hastie and James Paterson, who opposed a net zero target in a party room meeting, shook hands as they exited the room. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)
Several Liberals who advocated for their party to retain net zero have also argued they cannot point to a single inner-city seat they thought the party could claw back from Labor or the teal independents with the climate policy “compromise”.
“Nowhere, I don’t see anywhere we can pick up [a seat],” one Liberal said.
South Australian senator Andrew McLachlan, who is not in the shadow ministry and able to speak freely on policy, said he was “unconvinced” the Liberals’ new net zero stance would win over young and metropolitan voters.
“Personally, I’ll still be advocating in the public forum for [emissions reduction] targets and net zero by 2050,” he said.
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull told ABC Sydney his former colleagues were “guaranteeing that they will marginalise their vote … They’ve got the memory of goldfish and the dining habits of piranhas”.
Teal independents condemn Libs
Not all those who pushed for their party to retain net zero have lost hope though, with another moderate describing the decision to stay in Paris and retain five-yearly emissions reduction targets as a “positive”.
Anne Ruston, a leading moderate who had urged her colleagues to retain the target, said she had “always been a great believer that the best policies are delivered when you have everybody’s points of view put forward”.
“I think reality tells us that we were always going to have to come to a compromise, but I obviously am delighted that we are remaining in Paris, and that we are committed to emissions reduction and I think that is a very positive outcome,” she said.
Teal independents rushed to condemn the Liberals, with Curtin MP Kate Chaney arguing the “mixed message” would undermine investment certainty in renewables.
Mackellar MP Sophie Scamps said the net zero “backdown” showed the Liberals were a “party without conviction,” while Warringah MP Zali Steggall said abandoning the 2050 target was “reckless and a massive step backwards”.
Meanwhile, Labor is confident there is no realistic scenario where the stated Liberals approach to energy and climate directly nets the party any additional seats.
The view inside the party is the uncertainty and division caused by the Liberals ditching net zero and leaving the door open to potential taxpayer investment in new fossil fuel projects would not play well in the city or in regional centres where the energy transition is linked to local jobs.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen told the ABC’s Radio National the opposition had “chosen to declare themselves completely irrelevant to the main issues that are so important for Australia’s future” and that their policy was not consistent with Paris.
“Sadly, the climate deniers have won the battle within the Coalition. What we heard yesterday was a blancmange of contradictory, internally inconsistent statements and claims,” he said.
Even if the Liberals focused purely on household power prices, a senior Labor figure said the party would be prepared to do “battle” on this issue at the next election.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told ABC Sydney the Liberal plan would not reduce power prices and cited his government’s record of energy rebates and other price interventions.
“The cheapest form of new energy is renewables. The truth is that they do not have a plan to reduce prices, they have a plan for an ongoing crisis because of their failure to act,” he said.
Ms Ley has tasked her Climate Change and Energy spokesman Dan Tehan, along with Ms Ruston and Tasmanian senator Jonno Duniam with entering negotiations with the Nationals to finalise a Coalition position on net zero.
The three senior Liberals will meet with the Nationals’ Matt Canavan, Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald over the coming days to thrash out the finer points of the policy, such as what the Coalition would like to tie Australia’s emissions reduction ambitions too.
A joint party room meeting will be held virtually on Sunday to finalise the Coalition’s policy position, which will also capture issues like ditching Labor’s new vehicle emissions standards and expanding the capacity investment scheme to include coal and gas.
Mr Tehan told Radio National the new scheme would be called the “affordable energy scheme” and would “prioritise all technologies”, with “targeted underwriting” rather than direct subsidies, similar to the current scheme.
Ms Ley told Sky News she was open to supporting new coal plants if someone “comes to the market with a proposal” but noted there were no current proposals of that kind, saying her party’s focus was on extending the life of existing coal capacity.